Thanksgiving has come and gone, and the regular college football season for 2025 has wrapped up. Before we finalize the 12 teams in the College Football Playoff, there’s one more conference championship game to navigate.
Everyone enjoys making predictions, so let’s take a shot at forecasting the CFP lineup following this weekend’s championship clash. This game will be crucial in determining which teams move forward and which will be preparing for traditional bowl matches.
1. ohio
2. georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech University
5. Oregon
6. Texas A&M
7. Ole Miss
8. Oklahoma
9. Notre Dame Cathedral
10. Virginia
11. Miami
12. North Texas
Bold indicates teams advancing to the quarterfinals with a first-round bye.
* Denotes the highest ranked conference champion.
Ohio, Georgia, Indiana, Texas Tech University, Oregon, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame Cathedral—regardless of what goes down during the championship weekend, these teams are strong candidates for a spot in the 12-team bracket. Both Ohio State and Indiana boast perfect 12-0 records, and their face-off in this Saturday’s Big Ten Championship Game is essentially a No. 1 seed showdown. My hunch is that the losing team will still go undefeated in regular play and secure a first-round bye, joining one-loss SEC champion Georgia and Big 12 champion Texas Tech on the path to the quarterfinals.
Oregon State and Texas A&M may not reach their conference games, but, with only one loss each, they’ve earned positions in the first round. Should Georgia or Texas Tech stumble this Saturday, there’s a possibility they could sneak into the top four; however, for now, I’m keeping them at Nos. 5 and 6. Oklahoma and Notre Dame are the top two-loss teams, set to clash in the first round in Norman.
Then, there’s Ole Miss, who, yeah, should be pretty safe in the mix, even with Lane Kiffin potentially leaving for LSU. The CFP committee previously ruled the undefeated Florida State out of the 2023 race after quarterback Jordan Travis got hurt, asserting that the team would look entirely different without him. This year, the Rebels might be fine given the expanded 12-team setup, but they should keep that precedent in mind.
Bubble Team – Potentially In
In Saturday’s ACC Championship Game, Virginia faces off against Duke. If Duke, who has lost five games, manages a win, Virginia could be at risk of elimination from its conference altogether. I think the Cavaliers, having lost twice, will clutch a victory in Charlotte and secure their spot as the fourth-place champions.
This set-up leaves one last guaranteed spot within the Group of 5 for conference champions, which will be decided at the American Championship Game. North Texas is set to take on Tulane in New Orleans, amid coaching distractions for both teams. North Texas’ Eric Morris has accepted a new position, and Tulane’s John Sumrall is heading to fill a vacancy in Florida. It could be argued that the high-powered Mean Green offense, led by Drew Mestemaker, may have revived the Green Wave’s chances for a round trip to Oregon.
Another contender in this mix is Miami, also sporting a 10-2 record but without a spot in the ACC title matchup. The debate is heating up as the committee seems to favor Notre Dame over Miami, even though the Hurricanes have beaten the Fighting Irish head-to-head. The committee might keep the Golden Domers high in the rankings, but they’ll likely find a place in the “U” field.
Bubble Team – Likely Out
As for Alabama, whether they make it into the CFP will hinge on beating Georgia in the SEC title game, which, honestly, doesn’t seem likely at this moment. The Crimson Tide has lost three games, one of which, unfortunately, was a close call against Florida State. They’re looking for a second straight title. BYU, having lost once, was noted in last week’s CFP rankings but will need a win over Texas Tech in the Big 12 title if they want to move forward. If they fall, Miami could snag that last at-large bid.
Other squads are probably sitting on the sidelines. Utah, Vanderbilt, Texas, and the University of Southern California were all in the top 20 last week. Meanwhile, James Madison, with their 11-1 record, is set to face Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game this Friday. It seems likely that the American champions will take a Group of 5 automatic bid, putting JMU in a tight spot. Their only shot at the CFP hinges on a win Friday, hoping to see Virginia fall to Duke in the ACC title match, claiming two Group of 5 champions in the same field.
