In Tuesday’s Miami mayoral runoff, voter sentiment towards President Trump will be put to the test, especially after he endorsed Republican City Manager Emilio Gonzalez.
Gonzalez is up against former Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins, who aims to be the first Democrat to lead city government in nearly three decades.
Although both candidates are officially nonpartisan due to Miami’s election rules, it’s clear to everyone what their preferences are when it comes to party affiliation.
“This is no longer a mayoral race about who is the better candidate,” said Miami pollster Fernando Amandi. “This is a referendum on Republicans versus Democrats,” he told the Wall Street Journal.
President Trump’s endorsement of Gonzalez is backed by several notable Republicans, including DeSantis, Rep. Rick Scott, and Sen. Ted Cruz.
Prominent national Democrats, including former Department of Transportation leaders, have endorsed Higgins, alongside Pete Buttigieg, Congressman Ruben Gallego, and former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who are actively campaigning for her.
In the initial voting round last November, Higgins secured 36% of the votes, while Gonzalez received 19%, emerging as the front-runner in a crowded field.
Higgins, during her time as commissioner, represented Little Havana, focusing on housing and affordability issues while portraying Republicans as unfriendly to immigration.
With a population of around 440,000, Miami’s significant Hispanic demographic could influence national directions leading to the 2026 midterm elections.
Cubans make up the largest Hispanic group in Miami, historically leaning more towards Republicans and Trump compared to other Hispanic voters.
A Democratic win would signal a rejection of Trump’s immigration policies, while Republicans hope it will showcase Latino support for their party.
The election occurs during a time when Democrats feel bolstered by recent important victories nationwide, including Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial win in Virginia, which returned control to Democrats, and a pivotal race in New Jersey where Rep. Mikie Sherrill made Trump opponents the focal point of her campaign.
Hispanic voters’ shift from supporting Republicans to Democrats has contributed significantly to these outcomes.
In a recent Tennessee election for a U.S. representative, Republicans won by a narrower margin than anticipated, whereas Zoran Mamdani claimed an easy victory in New York’s mayoral contest despite his far-left stance.
Nonetheless, Florida remains firmly in Republican hands, a situation reinforced by Governor DeSantis’ steadfastly relaxed COVID-19 policies. After backing Biden in 2020 and Clinton in 2016, Trump won the state in 2024 and maintained his position in 2022.
Both parties nationwide are acutely aware of how a Democratic victory in Miami would be interpreted and are pushing hard for their respective outcomes.
Moreover, the candidates’ partisan positions are evident.
Higgins’ campaign email stated, “While you cannot vote against Donald Trump in the Miami Mayoral Runoff, you can reject Republican Emilio Gonzalez,” alongside an image of Gonzalez in a red MAGA hat.
Another email declared in Spanish, “Send a clear message: President Trump’s support will be rejected in Miami!”
Higgins once remarked that, “If you start enforcing all the shenanigans that the federal government does to pick people up randomly, that credibility could be eroded.”
Gonzalez, who once led President George W. Bush’s U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services and suggested abolishing property tax, supports Trump’s immigration stance but tends to divert discussions back to what he describes as “federal issues.”
“This is not about the mayor of Miami,” he stated during a recent debate.
and post wire.
