Bitcoin Nears Potential Breakthrough from Death Cross: Here’s What It Indicates

Simply put

• Bitcoin has experienced a significant rise at the start of the new year, which is boosting optimism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
• Currently, BTC is trading above its average price from the past 200 days, marking the first time since October.
• There’s potential for Bitcoin to move beyond the “death cross” formation that developed in November.

The new year kicked off with quite a stir, though, interestingly, it wasn’t initially related to cryptocurrencies. On January 3, a U.S. Delta Force operator captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, causing chaos in financial markets. This event saw gold prices surge above $4,400 per ounce while the S&P 500 gained traction from tech stocks, and Bitcoin finally broke free after being stuck for weeks.

As of today, Bitcoin is priced at around $93,958, reflecting a 2.69% increase for the day. But what matters more than the profit is the price positioning—it’s above the 200-day exponential moving average for the first time since October. If this upward trend continues, Bitcoin could escape the bearish “death cross” pattern it formed back in November.

This development is particularly significant for traders who have witnessed Bitcoin’s struggles throughout what was anticipated to be a strong year under the crypto-friendly Donald Trump administration.

Despite a bullish outlook in early 2025, Bitcoin ended the year down 6%. After rising by 125% to surpass $100,000 in 2024, the market reacted negatively when Trump took office—most of the favorable policy impacts had already been factored into prices by the end of 2024. So, 2025 became a typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario where traditional assets like gold and silver hit record highs while crypto investors faced losses.

While Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold,” struggled to maintain its position around $90,000, classic safe-haven assets thrived. This occurred against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to consider various defensive strategies. With Maduro now detained in Brooklyn, the oil market has been skittish, pushing many toward perceived safe havens.

Yet, chaos has a curious way of prompting action in both directions. The geopolitical uncertainties driving institutional investments into gold also remind crypto advocates of Bitcoin’s original purpose. When a government can detain a sitting president during the night and declare control over a country, the appeal of assets that are difficult for authorities to seize becomes clearer again.

Bitcoin (BTC) price: pressure finally lifted

In recent weeks, Bitcoin has been tightly confined within a narrow price range of $85,000 to $90,000. It has finally broken free, opening this week at $91,498 and currently trading at $93,925. The trading pattern today is robust, displaying no core price action throughout its body and decisively surpassing a significant resistance level.

For the first time since October, Bitcoin is now trading above its 200-day exponential moving average, a crucial marker differentiating between long-term bullish and bearish trends. Currently above this threshold indicates a potential uptrend, while falling below it has historically suggested a struggle. This is a notable shift, as the market has been grappling with downward pressure for months.

While exponential moving averages (EMAs) can help gauge trend directions, Bitcoin’s EMAs still lean bearish.

If the short-term 50-day EMA dips below the long-term 200-day EMA, it could signal that bearish forces have gained the upper hand, breaking the long-term bullish structure—a scenario traders refer to as a death cross, which Bitcoin has been mired in since mid-November.

Surprisingly, some technical indicators can fuel optimism. The average directional index (ADX) is currently at 21.3, hinting that the prevailing downtrend may be losing strength. This index measures trend intensity regardless of direction; typically, readings below 25 indicate erratic price action where false breakouts are frequent.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures market momentum from 0 to 100, shows Bitcoin at 65.6. This suggests buying momentum without being in the overbought territory. Right now, Bitcoin seems to be in a sweet spot; it’s gaining momentum but hasn’t yet reached levels that typically trigger profit-taking.

So, what does all this technical jargon mean for you? Well, we seem to be at a pivotal moment. The pressure that’s built over the past several weeks has now shifted upwards. The important 200-day moving average has been breached. If the market can manage several daily closes above $95,000 due to an increase in the ADX—though that is a big assumption—Bitcoin might break free from the death cross formation and potentially form a “golden cross.”

A golden cross occurs when the 50-day EMA surpasses the 200-day EMA, and traders perceive this as a significant bullish signal for a lasting upward trend.