A recent classified U.S. intelligence report suggests that key members of Nicolas Maduro’s government are likely the best option for maintaining short-term stability in Venezuela if the dictator is ousted, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
This analysis from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), shared with President Donald Trump and some senior officials in his administration, significantly influenced Trump’s stance to back Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodriguez, instead of opposition leader Maria Colina Machado as a potential interim leader. In a news conference, Trump remarked, “If she doesn’t have support at home, respect at home, it’s going to be very difficult for her to become a leader.” He added, “She’s a very nice woman, but she doesn’t respect me.”
Trump’s assessment appears to be based on the understanding that the next leader needs to secure the loyalty of the military and ruling elite to ensure stability, according to sources familiar with the intelligence evaluations referenced in the article.
In the midst of discussions about the future governance of Venezuela should Maduro be removed, officials turned to the CIA for insights into a possible next-day scenario. The report didn’t advocate for regime change or speculate on how Maduro could be displaced, but focused instead on who could conserve order if such a scenario took place, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The CIA report identified Rodriguez along with two other senior officials as potential interim leaders capable of preventing a government collapse. Former U.S. and Venezuelan officials suggested that Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino are significant power players, though both face U.S. criminal charges similar to those against Maduro and are largely viewed as adversaries by the U.S. government.
On the other hand, intelligence findings indicate that Machado and Edmundo González, who is viewed as the true victor of Venezuela’s 2024 elections, may struggle to govern effectively due to resistance from pro-government security forces, drug trafficking groups, and opposition factions.
Despite Trump’s apparent lack of support, Machado complimented him in a recent Fox News interview, suggesting that she would award him the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. “This is the prize of the Venezuelan people, so of course, we want to give it to him and share it with him,” she expressed.
However, she sharply criticized Rodriguez, claiming that she plans to return to Venezuela “as soon as possible.” Machado accused Rodriguez of being a key figure in systemic torture, corruption, and drug trafficking, as well as a liaison with countries like Russia and Iran, asserting that she cannot be trusted by international investors.
Additionally, Trump asserted that an election next month isn’t feasible. “First, we have to rebuild our country. We can’t hold elections. People can’t even vote,” he stated, suggesting that recovery would take time.
Polls after the recent arrests indicated strong support for the actions taken in Venezuela, although there were concerns about prolonged involvement. Some felt relief that the situation had not swayed entirely in favor of the rebels.
Maduro appeared in a federal court in New York and pleaded not guilty to charges, including narcoterrorism. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of the Army Pete Hegseth provided updates to lawmakers, with Rubio implying the U.S. could exert pressure on Rodriguez by restricting sanctioned oil shipments. Meanwhile, Trump stated that the U.S. “runs” Venezuela and seeks “full access” to its oil reserves, acknowledging the dire state of the Venezuelan oil industry.
He remarked, “The oil business in Venezuela has been bankrupt for a long time. They’ve pumped next to nothing compared to what could have been,” underscoring plans to involve a major American oil company to invest in and rehabilitate the country’s oil infrastructure.
Responses from both the White House and the CIA to inquiries from the news outlet were not immediately available.
