Three Factors That Could Spark a Crypto Surge in 2026

Bitcoin’s Path to Recovery

For Bitcoin to see a resurgence in its price, similar to levels it reached last October, a stable cryptocurrency market is essential—one that avoids significant downturns.

Matthew Hogan, the chief investment officer at Bitwise, points out that there are a couple of key factors that could lift both Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

First among these factors is a stable stock market along with the introduction of transparency laws.

A robust crypto market is non-negotiable; it must not experience events like the significant liquidations seen on October 10. Hogan explains that such incidents were major contributors to the challenges faced by cryptocurrency prices in late 2025, as investors were anxious that large companies could potentially have to shut down.

“These looming sales had cast a long shadow over the market,” the analyst remarked, noting that now those concerns are fading, thereby giving the first catalyst a chance to take effect.

Next up is stock market stability. Hogan warns that a sharp downturn—like a 20% drop in the S&P 500—would negatively impact all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, at least in the short term.

Ryan Yoon, a senior analyst from Tiger Research in Seoul, echoes this sentiment. He mentions that the stock market should not fluctuate wildly; it should find a semblance of stability. Once that happens, investors are likely to look toward the crypto market for higher potential returns.

Moreover, the final piece of the puzzle is legislative action. The Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act, often referred to as the Clarity Act, could provide a significant boost. David Sachs, the White House crypto czar, previously indicated that the bill is nearing its passage, with the Senate eyeing January 15 for potential progression.

“If this bill moves forward, it would represent a substantial victory,” Hogan said. “Without new legislation, the current supportive regulatory environment could shift with future administrations. The Act would solidify fundamental principles and create a sturdy base for future growth.”

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at Hashkey Group, has suggested that short-term market trends are often prompted by specific events—including fiscal policy and midterm elections—and are likely to experience volatility but improve over time.

In the medium term, however, the influence of institutions is significant, mainly driven by spot ETFs that attract long-term capital, which tends to boost market efficiency and help stronger players dominate.

Yoon mentioned that for broader interest to grow, practical applications of established projects are gaining traction, and identifying compelling new uses may be critical. A mature regulatory environment is also essential, positioning Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and a strategically sound asset.