Caribbean Live-Fire Exercises Send Message to the West
Last weekend’s military drills in the Caribbean, particularly around Caracas, were intended to emphasize a clear tactical stance: there’s no tolerance for narco-terrorism, communist ambitions, or leaders who ally with those we consider adversaries.
Yet, I’d argue that it wasn’t quite a sincere message.
The communiqué seemed directed at China, signaling a wake-up call of sorts: we’ve shifted our strategy. The phrase “FAFO” seems to capture that sentiment.
For over three decades, the U.S. seemed to be in a deep slumber under the Monroe Doctrine, which essentially told other nations to stay out of the Western Hemisphere. But after the 1990 Panama War, there was a notable change in focus, particularly as conflicts like the Gulf War and the Global War on Terror diverted attention from threats closer to home.
Fast forward to a pivotal moment: the inclusion of China in the World Trade Organization back in 2000. This act transformed China into a major global economic force, fostering leaders who explicitly sought Chinese supremacy on the world stage.
Interestingly, some of these ideas stem from my late American friend, Alvin Toffler.
His influential book, “The Third Wave,” caught the attention of Chinese leaders Deng Xiaoping and Zhao Ziyang in the 1980s, leading to numerous unauthorized translations being circulated without royalties across the People’s Liberation Army. Concepts from another of his works, “War and Anti-War,” also made their way into Chinese military strategies.
By the late 1990s, two PLA officers, Major General Qiao Liang and Colonel Wang Xiangsui, published “Unrestricted Warfare,” heavily borrowing from Toffler’s ideas to develop a strategy against the U.S.
Looking back, perhaps it should have been titled “Slow Motion War.”
This approach centers on understanding American vulnerabilities, highlighting our penchant for short-term cycles, like quarterly profits or election seasons. While Americans generally respond to direct threats, the Chinese take a more gradual, long-term view of conflict.
The brilliance of what they term “ultimate warfare” resides in capitalizing on threats that aren’t visible until it’s almost too late—think of the long-term consequences of smoking, for instance.
The idea proposed by Qiao and Wang was to maintain a steady pressure on America’s four main pillars of power: diplomacy, intelligence, military, and economy.
Examples abound. Through initiatives like the One Belt One Road, China has extended its diplomatic and economic reach. Domestically, they control the flow of information, while internationally, platforms such as TikTok have been harnessed for information warfare, all part of a grander military buildup aimed at surpassing U.S. capabilities.
(There’s even a notable line in “Extreme Warfare” which questions whether a special fund could be established for lobbying efforts aimed at influencing foreign governments. It’s a thought-provoking concept.)
China’s Maneuvers
While the U.S. was engrossed in Middle Eastern conflicts, China strategically expanded its influence across Latin America. In Panama, they seized control of ports surrounding the canal and started renovations. In Costa Rica, a country without a military, China contributed 3,500 police cars, even building a stadium at no cost. Similar gestures were made in Colombia.
Then came Donald Trump.
For the first time, a U.S. president recognized that China isn’t just a looming monster. They’re more insidious—gradually infiltrating and influencing, akin to a slow-moving blob.
The complexities of Venezuela, the regime of Nicolás Maduro, and the issue of narco-terrorism merely reflected the broader objective: countering China. Xi Jinping seemed to be the primary target.
In a dramatic twist, the moment of reckoning wasn’t tied to any meteorological event but rather to the actions of special forces. Following discussions about future ties with Venezuela, Delta Force unexpectedly apprehended Maduro and his wife, detaining them in New York before the Chinese envoy returned home.
So, the take-home for Xi? There’s a new player in town, and it’s certainly not “Sleepy Joe.” Their signals are clear: don’t underestimate the game being played.
Got any thoughts on this?
