Venezuela is facing a critical juncture following the U.S. arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro. Armed militias, guerrilla factions, and various criminal networks are now looming threats to the nation’s stability, as indicated by reports.
Now that interim President Delcy Rodriguez has taken charge, allegedly with backing from President Trump, experts caution that the situation is fraught with heavily armed groups, which could derail any efforts at stabilization.
Andrei Servin Pont, a military analyst and director at a Buenos Aires think tank, noted, “All armed groups can disrupt any kind of regime transition by fostering instability.” He emphasized the pervasive presence of subnational armed groups across Venezuela.
In this tumultuous setting, some experts believe Rodriguez must effectively secure the allegiance of two influential hardliners: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. Jose Garcia, a military strategist from Venezuela, pointed out, “The focus now is on Diosdado Cabello, as he represents the most ideological, violent, and unpredictable element of the regime.” He added that without the approval of those wielding power, particularly Padrino and Cabello, any negotiations with Trump might be futile.
The dynamics have shifted since Maduro’s ousting, with government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” deployed to maintain order and quash dissent. Oswaldo, a local shop owner, expressed his concern: “The future is uncertain; the colectivos have weapons, and Colombian guerrillas are already in Venezuela. Only time will tell what will happen.”
Checkpoints manned by armed motorcycles and undercover police have sprung up in the capital. They’re searching civilians for any signs of dissent concerning the recent U.S. raid. Selvin Pont summarized the chaos, saying, “An unstable environment will benefit armed groups.”
Beyond the capital, guerrilla forces and organized crime syndicates are taking advantage of power vacuums, especially in resource-rich areas. The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian guerrilla group classified as a U.S. terrorist organization, operates within Venezuelan territory, particularly near the Orinoco oil field.
Elizabeth Dixon, deputy director for Latin America at the Crisis Group, stated that the ELN has essentially acted as a paramilitary force in Venezuela, aligning itself with Maduro’s interests. If the power dynamics shift, former ELN leader Carlos Arturo Velandia suggested that they might align with the more extreme factions of chavismo.
Colectivos, as mentioned, also serve as armed enforcement units loyal to the political regime. Luis Cortés, the commander of one such group, declared, “We are called to fundamentally defend this revolutionary process. We have always been and always will be fighting in the streets.”
Various other armed groups are also active, including Segunda Marquetaria—a splinter faction of Colombia’s former FARC rebels—all operating alongside a local criminal entity known as Sistema, which has connections to politicians.
Additionally, the Torren de Aragua cartel, categorized by the U.S. as a foreign terrorist organization, has broadened its influence throughout Venezuela, Colombia, Chile, and the U.S. Allegations have surfaced that Maduro is entangled in drug trafficking operations related to multiple groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, and FARC factions, while fostering a culture of corruption.
