Iran Faces Unprecedented Crisis Amid Protests

Iran isn’t just witnessing another wave of protests—it’s in the midst of a significant crisis that poses a genuine threat to the survival of the Islamic Republic for the first time in years.

What started as demonstrations fueled by economic collapse and rampant corruption is quickly evolving into a bold challenge against clerical authority. Security forces are responding with lethal force, mass arrests, and internet blackouts. Reports indicate hundreds have died and thousands have been detained. The regime’s internet shutdown indicates their determination to stifle dissent and erase evidence of it.

Previous Attempts at Control

Iran has employed tactics like these in the past, but the current strategic situation is markedly different. There’s an increasing realization among Iranians that their leadership is failing.

Still, we have to consider that Iran’s leaders view themselves as more than typical dictators scrambling to maintain power. Their ideological framework suggests they believe they are executing Allah’s will.

Oppression as a Sacred Duty

Since its establishment in 1979, the Islamic Republic has maintained authority through the Velayat-e-Faqih, or Rule of Islamic Jurists. This doctrine positions Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei not just as a political figure, but as the protector of the Islamic revolution, which they claim is sanctioned by divine ordinance.

This belief directly influences how the regime tackles dissent. Even as their security forces fire on crowds, they don’t see it as merely suppressing opposition; instead, they view it as quelling heresy and rebellion against a divine order. Protesters are often branded as “corrupt on earth,” a term used historically to justify severe punishments.

Different from Past Protests?

Iran has witnessed large protests before—like the Green Movement in 2009 after a contested election and nationwide unrest in 2022 following the death of Mahsa Amini. Yet, each time, the regime has managed to survive.

This moment may be unlike previous ones due to several critical factors.

For starters, the economy is in dire straits. Issues like persistent currency devaluation, high unemployment, and rampant inflation are dismantling the middle class and severely undermining the state’s legitimacy. Adding to this pressure is a growing water crisis that has devastated agriculture and increased insecurity across various regions.

Additionally, Iran’s external deterrence has weakened. The recent conflict with Israel has inflicted real damage, including the deaths of key Iranian military figures and disruption to their missile and drone capabilities. The long-cultivated image of invulnerability is being shaken.

Moreover, Iran’s proxy networks are facing strain as well, with major shifts observed in groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, whose strength has been diminished.

Perhaps most critically, the regime’s coercive apparatus is under pressure, which could be pivotal for Iran’s future.

The Role of the IRGC and Basij

Right now, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its militia, the Basij, are vital. The Basij serves as a nationwide control and surveillance network, not a conventional military force. They are embedded in communities, universities, and workplaces, closely monitoring dissenters.

In previous protests, like the Green Movement and the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s death, Basij forces were crucial in quelling resistance through intimidation and arrests. Their effectiveness lies more in their ideological allegiance and presence than in battlefield strength.

The Basij aim to stifle dissent locally before it escalates nationally. If they remain resolute, the regime might contain unrest. But if they show hesitation or turn away, the regime’s grip could quickly loosen.

If a regime must increasingly rely on the Revolutionary Guards for internal order, it signals that local control has faltered, placing greater strain on the entire system.

Potential Outcomes

Three outcomes seem plausible regarding Iran’s future.

The first is continued oppression. If the IRGC remains steadfast and the Basij retains local control, the regime could suppress dissent with force, maintaining the Islamic Republic’s status quo but at the cost of deeper isolation and decline.

The second scenario involves a leadership shift without collapsing the current structure. A “soft coup” might occur, sidelining older clerics in favor of more militaristic leaders who still uphold the fundamental power dynamics but remove the least popular figures from the equation.

Finally, there’s the possibility of fracture. If parts of the Basij break away or remain passive, and the IRGC fails to act decisively, the regime could face rapid internal disintegration. While this outcome feels less likely, it would be transformative and potentially beneficial for long-term stability.

U.S. Strategic Goals

The United States must clarify its objectives regarding Iran. It shouldn’t attempt to dictate Iran’s culture or leadership, as such efforts have proven ineffective elsewhere. However, it can’t pretend to be neutral when faced with a brutal regime on one side and a populace yearning for dignity on the other.

The strategy should focus on:

• Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons.
• Ending Iran’s support for terrorism and proxy conflicts.
• Encouraging regional stability, rather than chaos.
• Supporting governments that build legitimacy through the consent of the governed, rather than coercion.

To achieve these ends, it’s essential to apply pressure without provocations.

Actions for Now

The Trump administration has a unique opportunity to assist those in Iran seeking change. First, exposing the regime’s oppressive tactics is crucial, especially considering the internet blackout that aims to silence dissent. Support should be given to lawful means that maintain connections with Iranians and shine a light on atrocities.

Second, sanctions should specifically target members of the Revolutionary Guards, Basij leaders, and officials responsible for violence, rather than imposing collective penalties that bolster regime narratives.

Third, there must be a clear message that those who perpetrate violence will be held accountable for their actions, while those who refuse illegal orders will have international support.

Lastly, it’s crucial to prevent any external escalation that the regime might exploit to unify domestic support against perceived threats. Strengthening regional defenses can help mitigate these risks.

Conclusion

The Iranian leadership believes they are executing a divine mandate, which makes them both dangerous and stubborn. Yet history shows that no regime is immortal.

At some point, every revolutionary government must confront the reality of diminished power and loyalty. Iran might be approaching that critical juncture now.

Ultimately, the outcome depends less on speeches in Washington and more on choices made within Tehran, specifically by the Revolutionary Guards. If they choose to align with the people rather than the clergy, change may be on the horizon. Otherwise, oppression will likely prevail for a while longer.