Security analysts have indicated that China is under growing economic strain as President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on countries interacting with Iran.
On Monday, Trump stated that these tariffs would be enforced “immediately,” using this tactic to push Tehran towards ending its violent response to widespread protests. Recently, he has voiced support for the Iranian demonstrators, even claiming that “help is on the way” for “Iranian patriots.”
This action could further isolate Iran, which is already suffering from extensive U.S. sanctions and significant inflation, but it may also affect Iran’s relationship with China, its major trading partner.
“China has relied on Iran as a source of cheap crude oil for years, effectively disregarding U.S. sanctions in the process,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
“If China’s access to discounted Iranian oil is hindered, it could present challenges for them,” Sobolik remarked, labeling this as a “pressure point” that the administration might want to explore.
Jack Burnham, a researcher focused on China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, reiterated how critical China’s oil imports are for supporting Iran’s regime.
“China plays a vital role financially, particularly through oil purchases,” Burnham mentioned. “While it’s true that they haven’t been providing direct military aid during the ongoing protests, historically, they have supported Iran’s military programs.”
Despite multiple sanctions aimed at stopping Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the country still remains part of global trade, with around 140 nations maintaining some trade relationships. According to the World Trade Organization data, Iran is expected to reach about $125 billion in international trade by 2024, with significant portions involving China, the UAE, and Turkey.
Reports also indicate that China receives most of its oil from nations opposed to U.S. interests, including a notable amount from Russia and Venezuela, yet Iran constitutes the largest chunk of China’s imports at 23.3%—essential for China’s energy strategy.
“While the situation with Venezuela is essentially an embarrassment for Xi Jinping, energy issues aren’t particularly problematic for him,” Sobolik explained. “However, if Iran’s situation changes, it could create issues for Chinese energy firms.”
Several questions about the proposed tariffs remain unanswered. The White House has yet to clarify if the 25% tariff would be in addition to the existing tariffs on most nations, or if energy imports would be excluded.
Previously, Trump justified significant tariffs using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act—a decision currently facing legal challenges in courts, including scrutiny from the Supreme Court on whether he can exceed his tariff authority.
This could also complicate a trade agreement signed last October, which involved some tariff reductions on Chinese products while China committed to uplifting its boycott against U.S. soybeans and easing restrictions on essential materials for U.S. defense.
“Trump sees these protests in Iran as a crucial moment for the regime’s survival. As is often the case, he’s employing economic tactics while keeping military options open for further support,” Burnham noted. “However, how this correlates with China is still hazy.”
A spokesperson from the Chinese embassy in Washington stated that the government would “take all necessary measures to protect legitimate rights and interests.”
Nonetheless, Sobolik cautioned that providing China an exemption might demonstrate weakness and indecisiveness to Xi.
Trump has also hinted that military action against Iran could still be considered, stating that the U.S. is “ready to help” amid rising fatalities from the protests, with one source estimating that deaths could exceed 2,500. He warned of “very strong action” if Iranian authorities execute protesters.
Sobolik expressed skepticism that either China or Russia would intervene directly, pointing out that China’s military, while growing stronger, doesn’t match the U.S. in terms of global operational capability.
Burnham added that Beijing seems to have signaled that Tehran may be “almost on its own,” recalling a past conflict where the U.S. targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities with airstrikes.
“China has offered some verbal support to Iran, but actual backing has been limited,” he stated. “They made it clear they wouldn’t provide security guarantees and see Iran more as a partner with shared interests rather than an ally deserving military protection.”
