California Democrats Strategize for Gubernatorial Elections
California Democrats have a knack for steering candidates to achieve their desired outcomes in gubernatorial races. This insight comes from my experience during the 2021 recall election against Governor Gavin Newsom.
Honestly, it’s not the defeat that keeps me up at night. It’s frustrating, though, to see seasoned political analysts misinterpret the events that unfolded.
Why is that? Well, understanding the truth can reveal how Democrats might act in the future, particularly looking toward the 2026 gubernatorial election.
In the aftermath of 2021, critics pointed fingers, claiming my campaign leaned too much toward “pro-Trump” sentiments. Some even suggested I should have rejected support from “pro-life extremists.” A columnist from the Los Angeles Times even labeled me the “black face of white supremacy,” implying I wasn’t addressing racism adequately.
On top of that, I squandered a lot of resources. The Los Angeles Times Editorial Board stood against the recall, calling it “undemocratic” and backed Newsom much like they did initially. Influential Democrats, including President Joe Biden and former President Obama, threw their weight behind Newsom as well. Yet, oddly enough, these factors weren’t the main reasons the recall failed.
For those keeping track, California recall elections consist of two crucial steps. First, voters are asked if they want to recall the governor—this requires more than 50% of yes votes. If that threshold is met, the successor candidate with the most votes steps in as governor.
Back in 2003, voters successfully recalled the governor with a majority saying “yes.” Among the numerous candidates, two stood out: Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democrat Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante. Some voters hoped for Schwarzenegger’s victory, while others supported Bustamante, creating a blend of motives that passed the first part of the recall by 11 points. Eventually, Schwarzenegger took the governorship due to securing a plurality of the votes.
Fast forward to 2021, and Democrats seemed to have absorbed some lessons. They ensured that prominent Democratic figures wouldn’t be on the replacement ballot, which likely encouraged a “yes” vote during the recall.
Antonio Villaraigosa, the former Los Angeles mayor, had shown interest in succeeding Newsom, having previously lost to him in the 2018 primary. Yet, he suddenly withdrew from the 2021 recall race. It turns out Democrats pressured him against running, cautioning that if he supported Elder and he won, his political future might be jeopardized.
In 2003, Schwarzenegger garnered 48.6% of the votes to replace the governor, while Bustamante received 31.5%. Interestingly, in 2021, the numbers were quite similar, with me receiving 48.4%. Yet, the next top candidates turned out to be YouTube Democratic influencers, who barely managed 9.6%. Most remaining contenders settled for single digits.
So the takeaway? I performed as well as Schwarzenegger—maybe even better, considering his hefty personal investment of $4 million versus my advantage of near-total name recognition.
However, it’s clear that Democrats have honed their strategies. During the recall, I even managed to get former Governor Jerry Brown’s personal cell number. When he picked up, he was surprised and asked how I got it.
I told him I knew people, and we had a lighthearted exchange. I was curious to know his thoughts if I happened to win the election.
Brown responded, “You can ask, but you can’t win. We’re not making the same mistakes again. Not even a notable Democrat will run, let alone the lieutenant governor.”
And that’s precisely what occurred. There were no high-profile Democrats on the replacement ballot to support a majority recall vote against Newsom.
So, contrary to what some experts have suggested, I didn’t just have my “ace handed to me.” The Democratic Party has been adept at crafting results that often fly under the public radar.
