Coffee Prices Decline Amid Rising Production Forecasts

On Thursday, Arabica coffee for March fell by 0.15 (-0.05%), whereas ICE Robusta coffee for March dropped by 68 (-1.82%).

Coffee prices saw a decline, with Arabica hitting a 15-month low and Robusta reaching a 6.25-month low.

The downward trend in coffee prices has been evident for three weeks, largely influenced by increased expectations for Brazil’s coffee harvest. On February 5, the Brazilian harvest forecasting agency Conab announced a projected 17.2% rise in coffee production for 2026, estimating it will reach 66.2 million bags. Specifically, Arabica production is expected to climb by 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, while Robusta is set to increase by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.

Favorable rainfall conditions in Brazil further bolster these projections. Last Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that the state of Minas Gerais, noted for being Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee-growing area, received 72.6 mm of rain within the week leading to February 6, which is about 113% of the historical average.

Robusta prices have remained low, partly due to a surge in coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer. On February 6, Vietnam’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that coffee exports rose to 198,000 tons, reflecting a 38.3% increase from the prior year. The country’s coffee exports for 2025 were noted at 1.58 million metric tons, up 17.5% from the previous year. Additionally, Vietnam’s production in 2025/26 is expected to grow by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, a peak not seen in four years.

Meanwhile, the increase in ICE coffee stocks is putting further pressure on prices. Arabica stock levels, which had dropped to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18, recovered to 461,829 bags by January 7, marking a rise to a 3.25-month high. In contrast, ICE Robusta coffee inventories fell to 4,012 lots on December 10, the lowest in 13 months, but have since bounced back to 4,662 lots, the highest in the last two months as of January 26.

On a slightly more hopeful note for coffee prices, the Brazilian Ministry of Trade reported on February 5 that coffee exports in January decreased by 42.4% year-on-year, amounting to 141,000 tons.

Additionally, reduced coffee supplies from Colombia, which is the world’s second-largest Arabica producer, are providing some support for prices. The National Coffee Producers Federation noted a 34% drop in production for January, bringing totals down to 893,000 bags.

However, there’s a cautionary sign; the International Coffee Organization (ICO) revealed on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) fell by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 138,658,000 bags.

In a semi-annual report issued on December 18, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects that global coffee production for 2025/26 will increase by 2.0% from the previous year, hitting a record 178,848,000 bags. While Arabica production is expected to decrease by 4.7% to 95,515,000 bags, Robusta is estimated to rise by 10.9% to 83,333,000 bags. Furthermore, FAS anticipates a 3.1% drop in Brazil’s coffee production for 2025/26, estimating it will reach 63 million bags, while Vietnam is expected to see production rise by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags, representing the highest level in four years. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are expected to decline by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.