Coffee Prices on the Rise
Today, May Arabica Coffee (KCK26) is up by 6.00, or 2.16%, while May ICE Robusta Coffee (RMK26) has increased by 72, or 2.02%. This rise in coffee prices comes after a dip earlier, with Arabica recovering from 15-month lows.
The Brazilian Real has contributed to this rebound, with its value increasing by 0.38%. It’s almost at Monday’s 1.75-year peak against the dollar. However, this strong real is making it tougher for Brazilian coffee producers to export their products.
Prices for coffee have faced downward pressure recently. Arabica hit a 15-month low today, while Robusta reached a six-and-a-half-month low on Monday. This decline is attributed to expectations of a substantial Brazilian coffee crop, which might boost global supply. A report from Brazilian harvest forecasting agency Conab, issued on February 5, suggested that coffee production in Brazil could rise by 17.2% year-on-year to a record 66.2 million bags in 2026. Specifically, Arabica production may climb 23.2% to 44.1 million bags, and Robusta could grow by 6.3% to 22.1 million bags.
Brazil’s rainfall has been quite favorable as well. Somar Meteorologia recently indicated that Minas Gerais, the country’s largest Arabica growing region, received 62.8 mm of rain in the week leading to February 13—about 138% of the usual amount.
On another note, Robusta prices are seeing a downturn due to escalating coffee exports from Vietnam, which is the world’s top Robusta producer. The National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam reported that Giang coffee exports reached 198,000 tons on February 6, marking a 38.3% increase from last year. In 2025, Vietnam’s coffee exports totaled 1.58 million metric tons, reflecting a 17.5% rise. Moreover, coffee production in Vietnam for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons, the highest output in four years.
The increase in ICE coffee stocks adds a layer of complexity to market dynamics. Inventories for Arabica monitored by ICE dipped to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18 but rebounded to a 3.75-month high of 461,829 bags by January 7. Similarly, inventories for Robusta coffee fell to a 14-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10, only to recover to a 2.75-month high of 4,662 lots by January 26.
On the surface, there’s a silver lining; the Brazilian Ministry of Trade reported a significant drop of 42.4% year-on-year in Brazil’s coffee exports for January, totaling 141,000 tons.
Colombia, which ranks as the world’s second-largest Arabica producer, is also dealing with low coffee supplies. The National Coffee Producers Federation indicated that production in January fell by 34% year-on-year to 893,000 bags.
However, there’s a more bearish perspective to consider. The International Coffee Organization noted that global coffee exports have decreased by 0.3% year-on-year for the current marketing year (October-September), totaling 138,658,000 bags.
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) released a semi-annual report on December 18, predicting a 2.0% rise in global coffee production for 2025/26, reaching a peak of 178,848,000 bags. Yet, Arabica production is expected to decline by 4.7%, settling at 95,515,000 bags, while Robusta production is anticipated to rise by 10.9% to 83,333,000 bags. Brazil’s coffee output is forecasted to decrease by 3.1% year-on-year to 63 million bags, in contrast to Vietnam’s expected 6.2% increase to 30.8 million bags in the same period, marking the highest production in four years. FAS also expects that ending stocks will drop by 5.4% to 20.148 million bags in 2025/26, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.
