Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery: A Potential Indicator of Price Movements
Dave Weisberger, former CEO of CoinRoutes, shared his thoughts on X on February 23, suggesting that Bitcoin’s hashrate recovery anticipated in early 2026 might signal more than just a rebound in mining activity. He believes it could indicate broader price changes on the horizon. He draws a parallel between this situation and how sovereign state involvement in mining could serve a similar function for Bitcoin as central bank purchases did for gold prior to its significant price surge.
Weisberger illustrates this by referencing the latest trends in gold, where he argues that sovereign accumulation typically precedes price increases by several years. He points out that the more telling indicators weren’t just ETF demand or retail interest but rather the consistent addition of foreign exchange reserves by central banks due to increasing geopolitical tensions and the risks associated with fiat currency.
“This led to an unexpected gold rally, catching many off guard,” he noted, adding that gold prices have surged to record highs exceeding $5,000 an ounce, causing panic among those who attribute the rise solely to inflation. First came the buying, then the price discovery, he emphasized.
Bitcoin’s Hashrate Recovery: Signals of Another Rally?
Applying similar reasoning to Bitcoin, Weisberger highlights a notable “V-shaped recovery” in the network’s hashrate projected for early 2026. After experiencing a decline of 15% to 20% from its peak, the computing power is expected to rebound from under 900 EH/s to over 1 ZH/s, with a corresponding increase in difficulty by nearly 15%, marking a record high.
For him, this recovery signifies more than just a return to normalcy after a stressful period marked by business restrictions, regional shutdowns, and margin compressions following halving events. He contends this shift is indicative of a different class of miner stepping in: a sovereign intervention that has taken root where private miners had been hesitant.
Weisberger makes the case—backed by research from Van Eck—that at least 13 nations are now engaged in Bitcoin mining at a governmental level. He mentions Bhutan, the UAE, and El Salvador, but also includes Russia, Iran, and Ethiopia as countries leveraging their energy assets for mining purposes.
“These are not just everyday or corporate miners chasing hash rates,” he clarified. “These governments are converting stranded or strategic energy into portable, verifiable, seizure-resistant reserve assets. They are mining with policy goals in mind: generating revenue without the need to print more local currency, enhancing network security for governmental interests, and ensuring their financial sovereignty.”
According to Weisberger, sovereign miners work under distinct conditions compared to private miners. They have longer-term perspectives, different capital costs, and are less compelled to sell when the market weakens. Thus, sovereign mining acts as a way to accumulate newly issued BTC into long-term assets, easing sell-side pressures and enhancing network security.
He emphasizes that the hashrate recovery is a lagging indicator rather than a mere coincidence. The expansion of sovereign mining encompasses slow-moving factors like hardware procurement, energy contracts, infrastructure development, and necessary policy approvals—all occurring when price movements seem to stabilize or adjust.
Weisberger suggests this unfolding process might alter the market structure before it’s reflected in price changes, potentially leading to greater security, tighter issuance, and wider acceptance of Bitcoin as a reserve asset rather than just a speculative one. He concludes succinctly, “This hashrate recovery is more than technological; it’s a clear signal from sovereign entities. Governments are making decisions based on their energy resources and financial positioning.”
As of now, Bitcoin is priced at $63,209.
