FX Kickstart: Major currency pairs stall in “non-trend” range
The US dollar has started its session in North America. It seems a bit mixed—while it’s dipped against the yen, it has managed to gain some traction against the euro and pound. Greg Michalowski points out that the current market feels pretty directionless. Price movements seem to be swayed mainly by key hourly moving averages and established swing zones.
EURUSD: Battle of the 100-hour moving average
The euro is in a bit of a struggle, as sellers work to keep prices below the 100-hour moving average.
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Support: There’s a crucial “floor” in the swing area around 1.1765 and 1.1778. Buyers have been quite persistent in defending this level.
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Resistance: Dropping down to the 200-hour moving average, which remains a significant hurdle for bulls.
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Outlook: Unless prices manage to maintain their volatility above this range, they may remain below the short-term average. Thus, the bias leans towards neutral to bearish.
USDJPY: Acceleration of past resistance
After the recent volatility induced by comments from the Bank of Japan and the Prime Minister, USDJPY is showing signs of possible upward movement.
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Key pivot: The area between 156.20 and 156.28 acts as a critical “risk definition” point. Holding above this level is seen as bullish.
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Technical changes: The pair recently broke above the upper trend line, signaling a potential acceleration towards February’s highs.
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Other support: The 61.8% retracement level at 155.592 has served as a solid foundation for recent price consolidation.
GBPUSD: Trapped between average values
GBPUSD is mimicking the non-trending behavior of EURUSD, oscillating between the 100 and 200-hour moving averages.
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Resistance: There’s a well-defined “yellow” swing zone along with the 200-hour moving average that’s capping profits. A break above 1.3536 would be needed for further upward movement.
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Support: The 100-hour moving average is currently acting as a short-term floor.
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Outlook: Traders seem to be eyeing the edges of the weekly range (highs versus lows). A decisive move above 1.3536 or below the 100-hour moving average will likely determine the next short-term direction.
Note for traders: In this “non-trend” environment, there’s a clear line drawn. Traders have seen success by “leaning” into these moving averages for small pip gains. However, real movement is likely to follow once the market breaks away from these narrow ranges.
