Recent videos and images on social media indicate that Hamas is reestablishing its presence in the Gaza Strip, while the focus on the region shifts toward the ongoing conflict with Iran. Experts and commentators from Gaza suggest this situation complicates potential plans for the area’s post-war future.
Michael Milshtein, a prominent analyst at Tel Aviv University’s Dayan Center, noted that for the past two and a half weeks, Hamas has been actively plotting not just a military revival but also a way to visibly assert power over its population.
“They’re utilizing their resources effectively, not solely for military recovery but to solidify control in everyday life,” Milshtein explained. He mentioned the introduction of new police forces, the presence of soldiers, and even parades in central Gaza. “Hamas is not going anywhere,” he added.
Gazans have reported that Hamas is diligently reconstructing its governance framework. “Their police presence is everywhere,” Milshtein remarked, citing enhancements in their tax system and active inspections of markets and mosques during Ramadan. They’re also starting to develop an educational system, he stated.
Political analyst Muhaimar Abusada concurred that the progress towards a post-war Gaza framework has stagnated since the Iranian conflict escalated.
“Currently, everything regarding Gaza is on pause,” Abusada shared. He observed that prior to the regional tensions, discussions about a peace commission and international stabilization force related to Gaza were gaining traction.
“It seems Hamas has taken advantage of the current circumstances,” he noted, “They aren’t feeling the same level of pressure as before.”
Both analysts pointed out that as the focus shifts towards Iran, the scrutiny of Hamas has lessened.
Before the conflict, there were indeed serious dialogues surrounding disarmament and potential international troop deployments in Gaza. However, Abusada remarked that the pre-war enthusiasm has waned, and it feels as though Gaza is being neglected.
“When speaking with Palestinians, many express that they are just waiting for the aftermath of the war,” Milshtein conveyed, adding that some anticipate Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be compelled to heed President Trump’s guidance relating to Gaza due to the Iran situation.
Central to these discussions is the possibility of an International Stabilization Force entering Gaza. Interestingly, both analysts suggested that Hamas might perceive such forces as less of a threat.
Abusada mentioned that Hamas may actually “welcome” the arrival of international troops, seeing them as a means to limit Israeli military actions rather than an attempt to disarm Hamas itself. If troops were to be sent from nations like Indonesia, Hamas might view them as a buffer against Israeli operations.
Milshtein expanded on this perspective, suggesting that Hamas might regard this scenario as similar to the dynamic between Hezbollah and UNIFIL in Lebanon.
“Hamas seems to think, ‘We’re fine with this arrangement; it will be like UNIFIL in Lebanon,’” he said. “They believe there’s no intention to disarm them or breach their territories.”
Looking ahead, Abusada concluded that the course of events heavily relies on the resolution of the conflict with Iran. If the Iranian regime remains intact, that could bolster Hamas’ confidence, he suggested. “If Iran isn’t defeated, it can serve as a moral support for Hamas,” he explained.
