Uncertainty Surrounds Iran’s Leadership After Khamenei’s Silence

After the newly appointed “supreme leader” of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, missed traditional public appearances during Nowruz, the Persian New Year, U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are in a frenzy to figure out who is truly in charge of the country.

Officials indicated there’s “no evidence that he is actually in power,” describing the situation as “beyond bizarre.”

The CIA and Mossad, among others, are ramping up efforts to understand Mojtaba’s health, location, and role in Iran’s wartime strategy. There’s been increasing dialogue about this in briefings to President Trump as authorities attempt to identify who’s issuing orders in Tehran.

“There’s no evidence he’s really calling the shots,” remarked a senior Israeli official.

Concern escalated recently when Mojtaba deviated from tradition, opting not to give a televised Nowruz speech—a common way for Iranian leaders to assert authority—instead sharing only a written statement on Telegram along with a still image. U.S. officials are now verifying when that image was taken.

“We were kind of hoping to see him in some form,” said one U.S. official, characterizing Khamenei’s absence as a “major red flag.”

Mojtaba was appointed on March 9 following his father’s death due to a U.S.-Israeli attack. He has since vanished from public life completely.

His first message after assuming the position was read on television, but subsequent messages have followed a similar pattern, leading to speculation about his health, especially after rumors of injuries from a strike.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth mentioned that Mojtaba was “injured and may be disfigured,” while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard highlighted that his injuries could be causing confusion in Iran’s leadership.

Other assessments by U.S. and Israeli sources suggest that while Mojtaba is alive, he may not have the centralized control wielded by his father. This lack of authority is crucial to understanding the current intelligence landscape.

Though there are signs Mojtaba is alive, including failed attempts by Iranian officials to meet with him due to security concerns, it remains unclear if he is taking the lead in governance.

The situation is further complicated as Israel continues its targeted eliminations of senior Iranian figures. Just last week, security chief Ali Larijani was also assassinated, deepening what officials term a growing power vacuum.

Trump recently commented, “All their leaders are gone… We want to talk to them, but we don’t have anyone to talk to,” reflecting the rising strain.

Saudi officials have echoed this sentiment, suggesting the Revolutionary Guards Corps are increasingly at the helm. “It seems more likely they are controlling him rather than the other way around,” one observer noted.

The military, political, and economic landscape of Iran is now predominantly influenced by the Revolutionary Guards, which has led to rising concerns among global officials about the regime’s stability.

Prime Minister Netanyahu asked this week who is actually running Iran, admitting uncertainty over the regime’s current leadership.

CIA Chief John Ratcliffe and Defense Intelligence Agency head James Adams recently held discussions on the matter, revealing that Iran is facing a significant command and control crisis but no immediate collapse is predicted.

The administration’s statements have only fueled growing concerns about its internal cohesion and leadership effectiveness.

Reports emerged of an undated video allegedly showing Mojtaba in a religious class, but lacks context regarding its timing, casting further doubt on his current role.

Analysts have pointed out that Mojtaba had not held a formal government position before his appointment and often worked behind the scenes, raising questions regarding the legitimacy of hereditary leadership during these turbulent times.

This legitimacy issue is now colliding with a deteriorating command structure, as rapid leadership changes continue and clear authority remains elusive.

As the fate of Iran’s leadership continues to hang in the balance, officials are left grappling not just with where Mojtaba is, but whether he, sanctioned by the Council of Experts, is genuinely in charge.