Cuba and U.S. Relations: A Turning Point?

The communist regime in Cuba has historically posed a challenge to the United States. Events like the Bay of Pigs invasion and the Cuban Missile Crisis during John F. Kennedy’s presidency created significant friction, resulting in prolonged tension. The only notable easing of relations occurred in 2014, when Barack Obama reopened embassies, relaxed trade and travel restrictions, and removed Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism.

However, in 2017, Donald Trump reversed this trend, stating, “I am canceling the previous administration’s completely unilateral agreement with Cuba… The previous administration’s easing of travel and trade restrictions is not helping the Cuban people; it is only enriching the Cuban regime.” From his inaugural moment, Trump made it clear that he opposed the leadership in Havana.

Now, eleven years later, Trump has remarked, “Something is going to happen to Cuba very soon… Cuba is a failed state. Cuba also wants a deal. And I think we’ll get a deal pretty soon, or we’ll do whatever we have to do.” This statement underscores some urgency. In a rare move for the Cuban president, Miguel Díaz-Canel initiated contact with the U.S. president to start negotiations. Despite years of harsh criticism towards the U.S., Díaz-Canel recently acknowledged the necessity of dialogue, indicating a shift in his perspective.

It’s important to note that the Cuban government is struggling to survive without reaching an agreement with Trump. There’s a palpable sense that the president, as a seasoned negotiator, will seek to extract significant concessions from Cuba. A gradual shift back to market capitalism might be on the table, alongside the potential return of the 2 million Cubans who have left the island since the revolution and wish to come back.

A free Cuba could lead to revitalization, given the untapped entrepreneurial spirit among its people after decades of oppression. This renewed relationship with the U.S. could also curtail the influence of Iran, China, and Russia in the Western Hemisphere. Besides its picturesque landscapes and well-known sugar, cigar, and coffee industries, Cuba is rich in natural resources like nickel, cobalt, chromium, and iron ore, along with oil and natural gas, albeit in limited quantities.

The potential liberation of Cuba could have historical implications. Similar to Trump’s previous actions in Iran and Venezuela, this moment could be viewed as a pivotal point in Western history for generations to come. The president has indicated that completing Operation Epic Fury in Iran will coincidentally address issues in Cuba, signaling a broader strategic plan.