President Donald Trump spoke on Tuesday at the White House, stating a sense of confusion about leadership in Iran. “Nobody knows who to turn to,” he said, yet he claims communication is ongoing with key figures who seem interested in a deal. This assertion contrasts with the Iranian government’s public denial of any such discussions.
The situation raises an important question: who exactly in Tehran has the authority to negotiate? The U.S. and Israeli operations targeting Iran’s senior leadership, coupled with emerging internal divisions, suggest Iran now functions more like a wartime entity dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) rather than a centralized theocracy.
IRGC: The Real Power Behind the Nation
Various intelligence assessments indicate a consistent trend: the IRGC is becoming a formidable influence in Iran’s political landscape. Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at a Washington think tank, noted that recent conflicts have weakened the Islamic Republic’s leadership but simultaneously boosted the security forces’ dominance. While the IRGC has consolidated its power, Iran’s overall stability appears to deteriorate.
Taleblu emphasized that U.S. interests shouldn’t hinge on negotiations with the IRGC but rather focus on military victories and support for Iranian citizens opposing the regime.
War Room: Supreme National Security Council
The IRGC’s power is administered through the Supreme National Security Council, which coordinates Iran’s military and foreign strategy, controlling various aspects of governance. Recently, they appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolgadol, a former IRGC commander, as the council’s secretary, which seems to affirm the IRGC’s centrality in Iranian politics.
According to a Middle Eastern source familiar with the workings, the IRGC now controls decision-making within the Council, reflecting a shift in power dynamics.
Mojtaba Khamenei: Supreme Leader in Name
Officially, leadership rests with Mojtaba Khamenei, who has inherited a position of extensive power. However, his actual influence remains uncertain, especially since he hasn’t publicly appeared since assuming power, raising concerns about his health and ability to govern.
Some analysts suggest that while he may not be a mere figurehead, the current governance largely lies with the IRGC.
Ghalibaf: The Central Figure in Trump’s Claims
Trump’s indication of discussions with “top people” highlights one individual: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Reports have surfaced suggesting that he might be considered by the White House as a suitable negotiator or even a future leadership figure within Iran.
Ghalibaf, who has a military background and currently serves as the Speaker of Parliament, has denied any involvement in talks with the U.S. Meanwhile, his potential interactions with U.S. officials add to the air of ambiguity surrounding negotiations.
Abbas Araghchi: Diplomat Delivering a Message
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remains a prominent figure in international discussions but may not have as much sway as one would think. Should negotiations occur, he’s likely to be part of the Iranian delegation, yet strategic decisions primarily lie with the IRGC and associated security structures.
Wider Circles of Power: Generals, Clerics, Enforcers
Beyond prominent figures, a range of officials influences Iran’s trajectory. This includes key military and political leaders, each contributing different strengths to the government. Despite some internal conflicts, the leadership appears unified in their singular focus on preserving the regime.
Despite differing views among leadership, a common goal persists: to ensure the survival of their regime. Requests for comments from Iran’s mission to the United Nations went unanswered before publication.
