For quite some time, it seemed like Silicon Valley thought wars were someone else’s concern. But with Operation Epic Fury, that’s changed. Launched on February 28, the US-Israeli efforts against Iran have pulled technology companies into the equation—not just as suppliers but as key players and targets. I hinted at this shift in my upcoming book, “New AI Cold War,” which anticipated that Iran would play a significant role in this unfolding reality.
AI at the Frontline
In a March 11 video update, Admiral Brad Cooper of CENTCOM made it clear: AI tools are enabling the U.S. military to analyze massive data sets in mere seconds, giving them a speed advantage in decision-making over their adversaries. What once took days can now be done in moments. While humans are still making ultimate decisions, the preliminary analysis is increasingly handled by machines.
Palantir’s Maven Smart System, which operates on Anthropic’s Claude, lies at the core of this transformation. Reports from NBC News indicate that Palantir’s AI has identified potential targets, allowing the U.S. military to strike 1,000 targets within the first day of operations.
Over 90% of Iran’s missiles are being intercepted, yet a serious imbalance is becoming apparent
According to retired Navy Admiral Mark Montgomery, the military is currently evaluating around 1,000 targets a day, with turnaround times under four hours—a pace unlike any seen before. Palantir’s CEO, Alex Karp, confirmed on CNBC that Claude continues to play a role in the targeting processes despite supply chain issues.
The new approach is now integrated into military doctrine, as explored in my book. The traditional cycle of “observe, orient, decide, act” has been streamlined; machines now handle both observation and decision-making, while human commanders merely direct the next steps. Essentially, it suggests machines might start doing more of the thinking.
Ukraine as a Prelude
America’s ‘Undeclared Emergency’ in the Context of AI
Operation Epic Fury isn’t happening in isolation; Ukraine has essentially served as a testing ground. My research reveals that Ukraine implemented Palantir’s metaconstellation, utilizing Starlink satellites, weather data, and civilian smartphone contributions. This accelerated their operational tempo to a machine-like efficiency, countering Russia’s numerical edge.
By retraining publicly available AI models with battle data, Ukraine improved drone strike accuracy dramatically—from about 10-20% to 70-80%. Currently, drones are responsible for 70-80% of battlefield casualties in Ukraine, and AI integration can be done cost-effectively at around $25 per drone.
Russia learned from these advancements, sharing insights with Iran. The Kremlin has provided Iran with upgraded Shahed-136 drones equipped with AI navigation to counter GPS jamming. Initial tests occurred against Ukraine, while China supplies around 80% of crucial tech for Russian drones. It seems these developments haven’t quite registered in Washington yet, which raises some questions.
Political Tensions Surround Military Contracts
Shifting Targets to Silicon Valley
Iran has come to a clear conclusion: if US forces invade, destroying their servers is a priority. The Iranian news outlet linked to the IRGC has outlined targets that include Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle, and Palantir—specifically naming locations in the UAE, Israel, Qatar, and Bahrain as “enemy technology infrastructure.”
And this isn’t just talk; Iranian drone assaults have already impacted AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. AWS confirmed damage and outages at these sites, which caused Nvidia’s stock to drop about 9% in just a couple of days. Wall Street seems to finally recognize that US military power now relies on this technological backbone as much as it does on advanced weaponry.
Future of Chip Production Hinges on a Little-Known Threat
A Gas Underappreciated and Overlooked
A somewhat silent but pressing issue has a significant economic implication for Americans: AI technology relies heavily on semiconductors, which in turn require helium—a non-replaceable component in current manufacturing processes. Qatar, which provides a third of the world’s helium, faced production halts after Iranian drone strikes in early March, leading to a major drop in annual helium exports and expected lengthy restoration times.
The spot price of helium has surged, with industry experts predicting a very unlikely reopening of operations soon. This dependency affects countries like South Korea and Taiwan heavily, with Gulf nations accounting for a significant share of the chip market. If helium supplies dwindle, it creates serious complications for AI-driven military capabilities.
AI’s Role in Shaping Narratives
The Internal Conflicts in AI Development
Anthropic, responsible for the target analysis conducted in Iran, has drawn a line on the use of its technology for autonomous weapons or surveillance. The previous administration saw Anthropic as a potential supply chain risk, leading to contract discussions and legal disputes. A Pentagon spokesperson has asserted that military forces won’t be held captive by external tech leaders.
Despite these challenges, Claude will continue to be integrated as a slow transition takes place. OpenAI has provided systems access, and Google is utilizing AI for military efforts, yet this field is notably lacking robust regulations. Veteran legislators have voiced concerns about the military’s trust in AI systems, with instances like a strike in Iran highlighting the potential consequences of accountability failures.
The Significance of Tech in Modern Warfare
This ongoing conflict clarifies that technological infrastructure is critical military infrastructure. Data centers are now prime targets, and even helium—which people often associate with recreational balloons—plays a vital strategic role. As the most advanced AI targeting systems are deployed in combat, legal battles over their control are unfolding.
AI’s influence has already changed the landscape of warfare in Ukraine, and Iran is poised to reshape various other sectors, from supply chains to financial markets. Every American has stakes in how this situation evolves, whether they realize it or not.
As technology and warfare begin to intertwine more closely, it’s become evident that Silicon Valley wasn’t quite prepared for this shift.
