The euro (EUR) has been experiencing a slight downtrend against the US dollar (USD) as traders come back from the Easter break on Tuesday. On Monday, it faced resistance at 1.1571, but as of now, it has settled at 1.1530, safely above the recent low of 1.1505, particularly with the situation surrounding Iran in the spotlight.
On Monday, President Trump issued another stern warning to Tehran, stating that the US could essentially wipe out the nation if necessary. This warning comes as the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is about to expire on Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern Time (midnight Japan time).
The US and Iran have both declined Pakistan’s offer for a 45-day ceasefire, with Tehran instead proposing another plan that Trump acknowledged as “important,” but still inadequate.
Despite the tensions, investors seem to hold onto some hope for a last-minute solution, which is preventing a significant fall in the euro’s value. In a separate statement, Dimitar Radev from the European Central Bank (ECB) remarked that it might be “too soon” to determine if the ECB will increase interest rates in April, citing the need for more data amidst rising uncertainties.
Technical analysis: sideways integration
From a technical perspective, there hasn’t been much change. The EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a flat range with some short-term bearish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting just below the 50 mark, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has stabilized around zero, indicating a cautious, rather than decisive, market stance.
Immediate support is present at the 1.1505 level, which showed weakness on April 2nd and 6th. A further dip could lead to testing the lows of March 30th and 31st, near 1.1440—still above the multi-month low recorded in mid-March at 1.1411.
If the market reacts positively and pushes above the short-term channel around 1.1570, targets would likely include the highs from late March to early April, set between 1.1630 and 1.1640. Beyond that, the high from March 10 at 1.1667 might come into play.
