NBA Award Races Heat Up

This NBA season has certainly been intriguing, particularly with the various award races heating up. Even as the regular season approaches its conclusion, there are still opportunities for players to make a case for their respective categories.

The contention for this year’s Sixth Man of the Year is no exception. While there are some clear frontrunners, it’s worth noting that several talented bench players had to step into starting roles due to injuries, which affects their eligibility—think along the lines of Peyton Pritchard.

As it stands, the competition seems to boil down to Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Keldon Johnson. According to odds from sportsbooks like FanDuel, these two are the ones with the most realistic chances of claiming the title.

So, which player is more deserving? Let’s dig into the stats.

When you look at the raw numbers, Jaquez has the upper hand. He’s currently averaging more points, assists, and combined steals and blocks per game, with his rebounding at around 5.1, which is close to Johnson’s 5.4. However, it’s important to consider that Jaquez logs nearly five more minutes per game than Johnson, so a simple comparison could be a bit misleading.

To make a fair evaluation, we can analyze metrics like points per 75 possessions, rebounding rates (both offensive and defensive), assist rates, and overall efficiency. We should also factor in shooting percentages, which you might find below.

From this angle, Johnson stands out as a more efficient scorer and rebounder. He achieves his scoring efficiency while maintaining a high output. But Jaquez’s responsibility in the Miami Heat’s offense often requires him to create his own shots more frequently—his unassisted field goal percentage is 14.7% higher than that of Johnson.

Jaquez’s stats for steals and blocks are slightly better than Johnson’s, yet the gap is minimal. This could be attributed to the Heat’s more aggressive defensive style compared to the San Antonio Spurs, with Miami’s opponents having a 1.3% higher turnover rate.

As many are aware, box scores rarely capture the complete picture. A player’s statistics need to be weighed against their contribution to team wins, and history is full of examples where numbers are misleading—think of players like Cam Thomas.

Estimated plus/minus by Dunks & Threes is a well-recognized metric. According to this data, Johnson ranks in the 73rd percentile across the league, while Jaquez is at the 59th percentile, giving Johnson the apparent advantage.

However, context is crucial here. A single metric can only measure how effective a player is within their team’s framework. As we discussed, Jaquez is often asked to contribute more to the Heat than Johnson is required to do for the Spurs, so he carries a heavier impact burden.

We should also consider how their respective teams perform with each player on the court. In direct comparisons, Johnson yields better results than Jaquez, which is expected given that Johnson plays for a stronger team—the Spurs have won 20 more games than the Heat.

This analysis should also include on/off statistics, indicating how a team performs when a player is on or off the court. In this case, the Heat perform better with Jaquez on the floor, while the Spurs are more effective when Johnson is not playing.

Historical trends show that to claim the Sixth Man of the Year award, a player typically needs to score effectively and be part of a successful team. Since the 2001-02 season, every winner has averaged at least 13 points per game, with 19 out of 24 recipients playing on teams that ranked in the top four of their conference. The exceptions tend to be players like Lou Williams and Jason Terry, who still participated in playoff teams.

Both Jaquez and Johnson just cross the 13 PPG threshold, but with Johnson, there’s a clear edge when it comes to team success. His Spurs are currently contenders, sitting in a strong spot within the packed Western Conference, while the Heat are aiming for a play-in opportunity.

So, while both athletes deserve acknowledgment, it appears history leans toward Johnson.

Statistics in this article were updated prior to Friday’s game.