Trump’s Iran War Strategy Ahead of 2026 Midterms
In a recent discussion, historian Victor Davis Hanson suggested that President Trump should consider winding down the conflict in Iran and engaging with China at least four months before the 2026 midterm elections to shield Republicans from potential political repercussions.
Speaking on “Pod Force One,” Hanson mentioned to Miranda Devine that Trump likely has a “self-imposed timeline” to conclude the war, as failure to do so could jeopardize his party’s standing in the House and possibly prompt another impeachment attempt by Democrats.
Hanson indicated that a grace period of four to five months might allow the U.S. to stabilize economically—perhaps leading to lower oil prices and interest rates—especially considering the lengthy implementation time for the large tax and spending legislation that Republicans passed last year.
If Hanson’s predictions hold, the conflict could potentially end by early June or July, providing Republicans with a narrow window to persuade voters to maintain their congressional majorities.
At present, Democrats hold a modest advantage, leading by five percentage points in the popular congressional vote, according to recent data.
Hanson, emphasizing the success of Operation Epic Fury, noted there isn’t a military issue with the current strategy, despite criticisms from various political commentators, including some former right-leaning media figures. Yet, he acknowledged that with time running short—now in week six—decisions would need to be made swiftly.
He also expressed that strengthening pressure on Tehran, particularly with China’s assistance—given that China imports a significant portion of Iran’s oil—could hasten the resolution of the conflict.
Looking ahead, Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in mid-May, an opportunity, Hanson believes, to communicate that if China wants to continue acquiring oil, it must help apply pressure on Iran.
In his analysis, Hanson suggested that Trump could adopt a more strategic approach rather than an oppositional stance, drawing on ideas from his book “The Art of the Deal.” He posited that Trump could negotiate saying, “We can’t let these people rearm, as they pose a threat to our interests,” while emphasizing cooperation to resolve ongoing tensions.
