During trading in North America, the EUR/USD slipped about 0.17%. It seems the chances of resolving the US-Iran conflict are still bleak, despite recent data indicating that the US economy is holding strong. As of the latest updates, the currency pair is sitting at 1.1684, having peaked at 1.1720 earlier in the day.
Yields Rise as Euro Weakens Ahead of Fed and ECB Decisions
High energy prices are bolstering the US dollar, which has shown a correlation with WTI prices in recent days. The US dollar index has enjoyed a few days of gains, marking a 0.27% increase today. The DXY, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of six currencies, stands at 98.66.
U.S. Treasury yields are on the rise, with the 10-year note up 5 basis points to 4.398%. This suggests that investors are not particularly convinced the Federal Reserve plans to cut borrowing costs anytime soon.
With talks at a standstill, U.S. President Trump has called on Iran to reach an agreement allowing the U.S. Navy to extend the blockade of Iranian ports.
In a separate development, core durable goods orders in the US surged by 3.3% in March compared to a 1.6% increase in February, significantly exceeding forecasts that anticipated at least a 0.6% rise. This uptick points to a rebound in corporate spending, likely driven by investments in AI aimed at enhancing profit margins. Additionally, orders for major products improved from a year-on-year change of -1.2% to 0.8%, surpassing expectations of 0.5%.
Meanwhile, Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year but fell short of the anticipated 3%. On a monthly basis, Germany’s HICP dropped from 1.2% to 0.5%, which is also below the expected rise of 0.8%.
Upcoming Fed and ECB Meetings
Traders are likely to focus on the upcoming monetary policy meetings on both sides of the Atlantic. The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates within a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, there’s quite a bit of speculation around whether Mr. Powell will stay at the Fed until the end of his term or if he’ll create a vacancy that could allow other Trump allies to join the board.
As for the European Central Bank, it’s anticipated that interest rates will remain steady during Thursday’s meeting. Yet, markets are still pricing in a potential 3 basis point rate hike later in the year, as indicated by the forward rate curve from Prime Terminal.
EUR/USD Price Outlook
Looking at the daily chart, EUR/USD is trading at around 1.1690, which is slightly above the triple simple moving average (SMA) near 1.1649—currently acting as immediate support. However, the pair still remains influenced by the broader market trend, with previous upward support hovering near the recent high around 1.1760 and coinciding with key downside resistance near 1.1800. This indicates that the current rally is fragile while the price remains below this critical range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around neutral at about 50.4, reflecting uncertainty in market direction after coming up from the mid-1.15 area.
On the upside, initial resistance lies near the previous ascending support line around 1.1760, followed by broader downside resistance near 1.1800. Sellers are likely to resurface unless a clear upward break can be established. Conversely, the first area to watch on the downside is the triple SMA support close to 1.1650. A daily close beneath this would open possibilities for a deeper pullback towards the mid-1.15 range, while a breakthrough in the opposite direction would help the pair maintain a solid position within a broader correction.
(The technical analysis in this story was produced with the assistance of AI tools.)
