A recent survey among likely Republican voters in Texas reveals a tight race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and Senator John Cornyn, with a portion of voters still undecided as the May elections draw near.
Conducted by the University of Houston Public Policy Hobby School, the poll involved a text message and online survey of 1,200 likely voters from April 28 to May 1, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.
The findings indicate Paxton has 48% support, while Cornyn holds 45%. Interestingly, 7% of respondents remain undecided. This three-point gap gives Paxton a slight edge.
In terms of favorability, 50% of likely voters view Paxton positively, compared to 43% who view him negatively, with another 7% unsure about him. Cornyn, on the other hand, is rated 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable, with 4% uncertain.
When surveying who might be the Republican candidate against Democratic candidate James Talarico in the November 2026 general election, the responses were split evenly: 43% favored Cornyn, and 43% favored Paxton. Meanwhile, 14% felt neither candidate had an edge.
This latest poll continues a trend in recent surveys for the Texas Senate runoff. A March poll by Quantus Insights had Paxton leading Cornyn with 48.8% to 41.3%, with 9.9% undecided, and many voters expressing strong intentions to vote. Another previous study for the Talarico campaign also showed Paxton well ahead, at 53% compared to 37%, suggesting stronger support among those identifying as Republicans.
Following the Republican primary on March 3, where Cornyn received 41.9% of the vote, Paxton got 40.7%, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt drew 13.5% before exiting the race, the winner of the May 26 runoff will go up against Talarico in the general election.
As this election approaches, Paxton has started airing ads that target Cornyn’s previous views on immigration and border security. The ads quote Cornyn’s 2013 comment suggesting a way to address the undocumented population without a direct path to citizenship, along with his 2018 assertion that creating an extensive border wall is impractical. The ads conclude with a message implying Cornyn is more favorable to illegal immigrants than to Texans.
