Is California Actually Turning Red?
As the June 2 primary approaches, early voting in California has surged, with over 900,000 ballots already cast. This marks a notable increase in Republican participation compared to four years ago.
A recent post from Political Data Inc. (PDI) reports that out of 905,889 early ballots, 37% belonged to Republicans—an 11% rise from the 2022 midterms.
In contrast, Democratic ballot returns showed a concerning trend; only 41% of Democrats voted early, reflecting a 13-point drop since the last primary four years ago.
When comparing early votes from 2022 and 2026, the changes are quite striking.
- 41% (-13) – Democrats
- 37% (+11) – Republicans
- 22% (+2) – Independents/Other
PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell offers two possible explanations for this early voting shift. He suggested that Republicans may be responding to pre-2020 voting habits, as they were previously discouraged by leaders like Donald Trump. Furthermore, some Democrats might be holding back their votes, aiming to support the leading candidates and avoid “wasting” their ballots.
In a social media post, Central Valley Politics highlighted the early voting trends, noting significant Republican support across many counties. The post suggested a strategic response to what they deemed a losing scenario for Republicans in early voting.
According to PDI data, older voters (65 and up) had the highest turnout rate at 54%, while younger voters (ages 18-34) lagged significantly at just 10%.
Mitchell remarked that these early numbers often emerge in elections characterized by lower voter turnout, indicating that those who participate typically vote consistently in each election.
Currently, the Democratic field includes former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter. On the Republican side, former Fox News host Steve Hilton has a strong lead against Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
