The EUR/USD exchange rate slipped towards the 1.1600 mark on Tuesday. This decline comes amid mixed signals from the eurozone, which has restricted support for the euro, while the U.S. dollar gained strength following robust labor market figures and rising bond yields.
A recent ADP jobs report revealed that private sector employers in the U.S. added 42,250 jobs in the first week of May, marking the highest growth since the survey’s inception in October 2025. This data seems to bolster the idea that the Federal Reserve might be hesitant to lower interest rates anytime soon.
Additionally, there was a surge in demand for U.S. dollars after President Donald Trump adopted a firmer position regarding Iran. He remarked, “We may have to deal another blow to Iran,” suggesting that Iran is “begging for a deal.” This rhetoric has reignited fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving more people towards the safety of the dollar.
On the other hand, the eurozone’s situation remains delicate, as European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to express worries about the long-term growth potential of the region. A recent report from the ECB emphasized that while current labor market trends and immigration are aiding economic activity, structural demographic challenges could hinder future growth prospects.
Short-term technical analysis:
Looking at the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is currently at 1.1599, below both the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1638 and the 100-period SMA of 1.1710, suggesting a bearish outlook in the near term. The pairing is hovering near a significant horizontal support level at 1.1592, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped into oversold territory at around 27. This indicates that although selling pressure remains strong, the rate of decline could decelerate if sellers pull back at this support level.
As for resistance, the first barrier is seen at 1.1612, with another level at 1.1635 that aligns with the 20-period SMA just above it at 1.1624. A tighter resistance cap exists around 1.1638 and the broader resistance at the 100-period SMA at 1.1710. Conversely, a break below 1.1592 would signal new lows and reinforce the bearish trend on the 4-hour chart.
