During his visit to Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin received the show of solidarity he anticipated from Chinese leader Xi Jinping, but he didn’t secure the gas pipeline agreement he reportedly sought. After the trip, the Kremlin adopted a defensive tone when discussing the overall outcomes.
China worked hard to demonstrate that President Donald Trump’s recent visit didn’t create any rifts in their “unlimited partnership” with Russia. Putin was welcomed with a ceremony similar to that of Trump’s, highlighting the shared interests of both nations as well as Xi’s personal rapport with Putin.
However, the “unlimited partnership” isn’t without its challenges. One key issue is the Power of Siberia 2 (PoS-2) pipeline project. This significant endeavor, spanning 1,600 miles and costing around $15 billion, aims to deliver about 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russian fields to Chinese consumers annually. The pipeline’s success is crucial for Russia to recover from lost income due to disrupted gas sales to Europe following the invasion of Ukraine.
Interestingly, Chinese officials rarely mention the PoS-2 and, when they do, they often emphasize the substantial technical hurdles of the eight- to ten-year construction timeline or reiterate requirements for discounted gas prices for domestic Chinese customers.
Russia’s hesitance in meeting these discount demands has hindered pipeline negotiations for years, and a new concern has surfaced from their discussions: China’s strategic aim to avoid over-reliance on any single energy supplier. They’ve set a limit on their energy imports from each country, and Russia has actually reached that threshold.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated that while Putin and Xi expressed vague sentiments about understanding the PoS-2 project and its route, it’s clear that Putin didn’t receive the strong commitment he was hoping for, and a construction start date remains undecided.
The joint statement following the meeting emphasized their intention to deepen energy partnerships but notably omitted specific mentions of the PoS-2 project. In contrast, recent agreements with the U.S. indicate that China has, at least, committed to buying more American energy products.
After a meeting with President Xi, Trump stated that China plans to purchase oil from the U.S., with shipments expected to head to Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska. He proudly mentioned that the U.S. now produces more oil and gas than both Saudi Arabia and Russia combined.
On Tuesday, it was reported that four tankers filled with liquefied natural gas (LNG) were on their way from Louisiana to China, expected to arrive between June 15th and 28th. This shipment marks the first LNG from the U.S. to China during Trump’s second term.
The lengthy joint statement, nearly 10,000 words, covered various points of a shared stance, including China’s ambitions concerning Taiwan. The document also included stern opposition to Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense proposal, labeling it a destabilizing threat—an ongoing concern for Russia and China regarding foreign missile defense systems.
During Putin’s visit, around 20 documents were signed, although reports indicate that this was about half of what Russia initially sought.
The Kremlin has also downplayed the apparent success of Putin’s trip, suggesting that “not everything was as it seemed on the surface.” Timing could have favored pushing for the pipeline, especially given China’s fears about energy supply disruptions from the situation in Iran. Some analysts claim that the Power of Siberia 2 project might be lost forever, insisting that as China diversifies its options, it gains leverage in negotiations with Russia over pricing and contract terms.
This dynamic could leave Russia increasingly reluctant to reduce its standing within this partnership, potentially placing it in a subordinate role as China tightens control over the Russian economy, which it heavily relies upon.
That said, China remains Russia’s primary trading partner and its largest customer for oil, making any shift in that relationship unlikely. Xi recently stated that ties between China and Russia are at a “historic high.” He also commented on the rapid changes in the global landscape and the dangers posed by a return to cutthroat competition, statements that seem somewhat ironic coming from a leader known for repressing democracy and aggression toward Taiwan, while conversely engaging with a leader who has initiated a brutal war against his neighboring country.
