Synthetic Engine Oil Supplies Dwindling Amid Iran Conflict
Automakers are finding themselves in a tough spot as the ongoing conflict in Iran disrupts crucial supplies of synthetic engine oil. This situation could potentially lead to an increase in the cost of oil changes by nearly 40%.
With prices climbing, dealers and distributors are rushing to stock up on oil. Some suppliers are cautioning that the U.S. might run out of key Group III base oil from the Gulf region as early as June, according to reports.
This anticipated shortage is already affecting oil change prices at various repair shops.
Chris Harp, who owns A&C Auto Repair in Alabama, mentioned that a 55-gallon drum of full synthetic oil, which used to cost between $300 and $400, has recently soared to around $1,000. Consequently, a standard synthetic oil change that was about $65 could soon reach $85 or even $90.
Group III base oils are specially refined petroleum oils formulated to withstand extreme temperatures while minimizing engine wear. They play a significant role in manufacturing modern synthetic motor oils and transmission fluids.
Nissan has started distributing two of its popular synthetic motor oils to retailers but has reduced quotas to 55% of what they were last year due to supply chain shortages. Meanwhile, Toyota has reportedly informed its dealers that specific motor oils may run low due to production and logistics issues globally, suggesting that the service division utilize substitutes to mitigate demand.
Some industry leaders are drawing parallels between the current situation and the semiconductor crisis that severely impacted auto production during the pandemic, stating that without these supplies, getting cars off assembly lines would be hindered.
Arnold Gasita, CEO of Petra Automotive Products, highlighted that while cars can be assembled, they can’t be fully prepared for consumers because of a lack of transmission fluid.
The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association has warned that this shortage might persist until at least mid-2027, posing a threat to new car production across the entire industry.
As demand spikes and panic buying begins, suppliers are scrambling to maintain inventory. Gachita shared that he’s received numerous emails from automakers expressing that their suppliers simply can’t keep up.
Meanwhile, auto analyst Lauren Fix has argued that the fears surrounding this shortage may be somewhat overstated due to panic-driven buying and sensational headlines. She compared the current situation to early pandemic shortages of toilet paper and other commodities.
While acknowledging that there are genuine supply disruptions, particularly for specialty synthetic oils used in more modern cars, Fix believes that most drivers won’t face extensive supply issues. She emphasized that the focus is mainly on premium Group III base oils required for thinner blends in new engines, whereas conventional oils for older vehicles should still be accessible.
Fix anticipates that standard motor oil will remain available, although prices might be higher and discounts fewer. She warned that supply pressures could intensify as consumers rush to stock up.
Rather than panicking, Fix advises consumers to maintain perspective, reminding them that local stores won’t turn into chaotic scenes reminiscent of a post-apocalyptic wasteland. She expressed concern over how quickly people tend to enter panic consumption modes during even minor supply disruptions.
