At this point, the pattern is almost tedious. Star Wars-related projects have often fallen short of what was anticipated before their release.
Seven years after “The Rise of Skywalker,” Disney and Lucasfilm aimed to reinvigorate the franchise with “The Mandalorian” and Grogu. Yet, it became evident yet again that they struggled to grasp what their audience truly wanted.
When “The Force Awakens” launched under then-president Kathleen Kennedy, it was a financial triumph; it didn’t necessarily reinvent the genre, but it created a promising groundwork for further stories. Unfortunately, the following entries in the main trilogies saw diminishing returns, highlighting a lack of coherent strategy from the studio about what audiences loved about the saga.
Familiar characters, like Luke Skywalker and Han Solo, seemed to be undermined at every turn. For instance, “The Last Jedi” introduced an odd subplot about class and politics that felt disconnected from the main narrative, ultimately sidelined as the trilogy continued. The underlying plan seemed to hinge on getting the audience to care about new characters simply because they existed, which didn’t pan out.
Disney’s first Star Wars film in seven years is shaping up to be another major letdown
Jump to 2026, and Disney appeared to think that its streaming success with “The Mandalorian” would translate into box office triumphs. While the first season captured attention with its unique “Western” style, that initial buzz rapidly waned. Still, they pushed a fragmented narrative into theaters.
It’s not just a disappointment; the recent box office figures clearly indicate the challenges Disney and Lucasfilm face in regaining audience trust.
“The Mandalorian & Grogu” opened to a modest $80 million during the Memorial Day weekend. Yet, it experienced a staggering 70% drop in its second weekend, failing to garner just $24.4 million.
Box office earnings for “The Mandalorian & Grogu” take a nosedive, leading to significant financial losses for Disney
Recent estimates suggested the film could make around $10 million or less in its third weekend. This could effectively spell disaster for the domestic box office and lead to considerable financial hardship for Disney.
Factoring in production and marketing expenses, “The Mandalorian” needed to bring in between $450 million and $500 million just to break even. However, it has only reached approximately $293 million globally, which includes a mere $155 million from U.S. theaters.
When adjusted for inflation, the comparison to previous Star Wars releases paints an even bleaker picture. Here’s a snapshot of how “The Mandalorian” ranks at the domestic box office:
- “The Force Awakens” – $1.27 billion
- “The Last Jedi” – $780 million
- “Rogue One” – $700 million
- “The Rise of Skywalker” – $620 million
- “Solo” – $265 million
- “The Mandalorian and Grogu” – $155 million
“Solo” was deemed a catastrophic failure, leading to the cancellation of its planned standalone trilogy. News reports indicate that “The Mandalorian” could end up earning $70-80 million less than that. It’s safe to call this a failure.
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While “The Mandalorian” hasn’t been overtly political or particularly controversial, star Pedro Pascal has taken steps to generate conversation. The cumulative effects of their decisions over the years perhaps led to a point where viewers seem indifferent.
Despite having one of the most cherished franchises in film history under their stewardship, Kathleen Kennedy’s management of Disney and Lucasfilm has eroded audience trust. No doubt, this will be a topic studied in film courses for years to come. It could have all been avoided if they had prioritized quality storytelling, plot coherence, and character arcs rather than adhering to every prevailing stereotype. Now, they’re staring down a loss of over $100 million when it comes to their Star Wars films. I mean, it’s quite the achievement in its own right.
