Severe Weather Threat Shifts to Upper Midwest

After the intense weather that hit the Plains last week, attention now turns to the upper Midwest, where densely populated regions are at risk for several days of severe storms.

The FOX Prediction Center has issued warnings about the potential severity of these storms.

By the middle of the week, the threat area has expanded to include more than 40 million residents across the region, with risks for large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes.

Moreover, these humid conditions could lead to dangerous flash flooding, with expected rainfall totals between 1 to 2 inches through midweek.

On Monday, a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather threat was declared across the central United States, from Colorado’s Front Range all the way to central Kansas.

A tornado warning was in effect for Newton County, Missouri—right at the Kansas border—until 5 a.m. Central Time today.

This afternoon, storms may produce large hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter, alongside wind gusts surpassing 110 mph and the possibility of isolated tornadoes.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, we expect a significant drop in the jet stream, influencing conditions across the West Coast.

Intense instability in the atmosphere could become pronounced as a surface low moves northward overnight, ahead of an accompanying cold front.

With dew points in the 50s to low 60s and strong heating during the day, the environment is set for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornado potential.

This brings about a Level 3 severe weather risk, particularly across North Dakota as the low-pressure system approaches.

According to the FOX Prediction Center, the primary dangers associated with the evolving storm by Tuesday afternoon and evening will be large hail and tornadoes.

Meanwhile, the nighttime threat will mainly involve damaging winds as the storm sweeps into the Red River Valley.

By Wednesday, our focus will shift eastward as the central low pressure system moves into Canada, pushing its trailing cold front through the upper Midwest.

A Level 3 severe weather risk is also in place, with parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa facing the brunt of it.

Minneapolis, in particular, finds itself on the edge of what experts describe as a “potentially significant weather event” expected in the afternoon and evening.

Deep shear in the atmosphere and increased instability may lead to supercells and curved storm lines that pose various threats.

As of Thursday, the severe weather threat will settle in the Midwest, with a Level 2 out of 5 risk encompassing over 26 million people, including major cities like Chicago, St. Louis, and Milwaukee.

As the cold front moves eastward, storms are likely to continue to develop through the afternoon and evening, raising concerns for a resurgence of severe weather hazards.

Furthermore, widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches could trigger flash flooding in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois.

If the storm moves more slowly or tracks the same areas multiple times, localized rainfall amounts could exceed 2 to 3 inches, leading to a Level 1 out of 4 flash flood risk in some regions by Wednesday.