Exclusive – President Donald Trump’s tariff pledge, dubbed ‘Emancipation Day,’ is encountering significant challenges. A new analysis suggests his expansive trade policies have not boosted manufacturing as intended and may have actually hindered job growth in the U.S.
This report, acquired through various channels, surfaces months after President Trump’s notable economic initiatives faced setbacks. A recent Supreme Court decision invalidated key tariffs, which has spurred companies to seek millions in tariff reimbursements.
Trump’s anticipated global tariff implementation in April 2025 marks the largest U.S. tariff increase in decades. The promise was that this increase would ignite a revival in manufacturing, restore factory jobs domestically, and decrease reliance on foreign products.
However, researchers from the Advanced American Freedom Foundation contend that the tariffs did not achieve these aims. They estimate that the tariffs led to about 1 million fewer jobs across the nation compared to pre-tariff projections.
President Trump states that the U.S. would be ‘ruined’ without tariff revenue
The review portrays a bleak picture for the manufacturing sector, the intended beneficiary of the tariff policy. It’s been estimated that roughly 75,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing within the first year of the policy—a staggering rate of about 6,250 jobs each month.
Richard Stern, deputy director of the Plymouth Free Enterprise Institute, indicated that they can assert with over 90% certainty that job losses in manufacturing are attributable to the tariffs. He noted that many U.S. manufacturers are dependent on imported parts and materials.
“Most of the imports are coming from American firms, especially those involved in manufacturing,” he added. This indicates that the tariffs essentially acted as a significant tax burden on high-end American manufacturing.
‘We were right’: Supreme Court rules favorably on Trump’s tariffs
Interestingly, the tariffs have proved financially beneficial for Washington. Tariff revenue soared from $9.6 billion in March 2025 to $23.9 billion by May. By the end of the fiscal year, the total tariff collections reached $215.2 billion, nearly tripling the pre-tariff figures.
In January alone, tariff collections hit $30.4 billion—a whopping increase of 242% compared to the same month the previous year. Customs revenue for the current fiscal year has already surpassed $230 billion, quadrupling last year’s figures.
One year later, Trump tariffs yield billions as refund requests emerge
Yet, the AAFF—founded by former Vice President Mike Pence—claims that the revenue success came at a detrimental price. Their analysis indicates a deceleration in employment growth across most sectors after the tariffs were instituted, with manufacturing and trade-related industries suffering the most. They estimated a 99.9% likelihood that employment growth slowed following the change in policy.
When asked for comments regarding the report, White House press secretary Khush Desai opted not to address its claims directly and instead criticized the group, stating that “another useless memo will never make Mike Pence relevant again.”
Trump administration sets up $166 billion tariff refund system post-Supreme Court ruling
The AAFF report also highlights heightened expenses for U.S. households and businesses. According to their findings, about 90% of the tariff burden landed on U.S. importers rather than overseas producers. The authors estimate that the average American household incurred an additional $1,000 in costs related to tariffs in 2025.
As companies pursue refunds due to the Supreme Court’s ruling, Stern has underscored that such repayments won’t necessarily amend the significant economic fallout that occurred during the tariff era. “You can’t undo the damage. You can’t put the factory back together,” he remarked, pointing out that many businesses lacked the necessary products, leading to closures.
The report asserts that the tariffs “illegally imposed taxes on American families, cost nearly 1 million jobs, and were ultimately ruled illegal.” These findings add complexity to the ongoing discussion surrounding President Trump’s trade policies, particularly regarding claims that elevated tariffs can rejuvenate domestic manufacturing and cultivate job growth.
