The far-left Congressional candidate, backed by Mayor Zoran Mamdani, is trailing veteran congressman Adriano Espaillat by eight percentage points, as the Democratic primary approaches, according to a recent poll.
Dalializa Avila Chevalier, a doctoral candidate and ally of the Democratic Socialists of America, has garnered more support from white voters, beating Espaillat 35% to 25%. However, Espaillat holds a stronger lead among Black voters (36% to 21%) and Latino voters (42% to 30%) in the 13th Congressional District, which spans areas like Morningside Heights and Harlem.
The incumbent congressman has an overall lead of just 35% to 27%, as indicated by a survey conducted by Mercury Public Affairs for a group supporting Espaillat. This poll, involving 468 likely Democratic primary voters and conducted from June 9-11, revealed that 38% of respondents remain undecided. The margin of error stands at plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Despite the tight race, the poll also suggested that some of the Democratic Socialists’ more radical views do not resonate well in the district. A significant 72% of those surveyed expressed support for school choice and charter schools, and a similar number opposed defunding the police.
The findings imply that Democratic primary voters in NY-13 might prioritize public safety and educational opportunity over the DSA’s more controversial stances, as noted in the voting memo.
The National Black Empowerment Action Fund (NBEAF) plans to invest at least $750,000 in the campaign’s closing weeks to inform Black voters about Espaillat’s record. The election will take place on June 23, following nine days of early voting that began recently.
The group is promoting digital ads portraying Espaillat as a “real Democrat” while criticizing “extremists” seeking to “gentrify neighborhoods.” Senior Advisor Darius Jones emphasized the importance of revealing Espaillat’s commitment to fighting for Black and Hispanic New Yorkers against external forces that aim to exploit these communities.
Jones elaborated that, “Mr. Espaillat is a true Democrat and a true progressive who doesn’t like extremism.” He stressed the need for constituents to communicate what they appreciate about Espaillat’s efforts, particularly regarding adherence to policies that reflect their priorities.
He added that many Black and Hispanic voters are wary of the tactics being employed by the DSA, especially in terms of gentrification’s impact on their communities.
It can be challenging to gauge voter turnout in primary elections, particularly given the typically low engagement rates.
Last year, Mamdani successfully boosted youth turnout in the mayoral race, flipping numerous pre-primary predictions and defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo.
Turnout may indeed play a crucial role in deciding the outcome of this generational clash between 32-year-old Chevalier and the 71-year-old Espaillat, a seasoned figure who has previously served in the state legislature.
As the first Dominican-American in Congress, Espaillat is keen to secure votes from older, working-class, and middle-class Black and Latino constituents.
Recently, he received important endorsements from several local leaders, including state Senators and other prominent figures within the Harlem district.
Support from the Congressional Black Caucus, spearheaded by House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Yvette Clarke, further buttresses Espaillat’s campaign.
Mamdani is opposing Chevalier, an immigration activist who has rallied younger, more progressive voters who played a significant role in his mayoral victory last year.
Chevalier is planning to ramp up her campaign efforts; she will be attending a rally in Brooklyn alongside Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, supporting her and fellow DSA candidate Claire Valdez in the 7th District race, which is open due to U.S. Rep. Nydia Velasquez’s retirement.
