America needs a carrier strike group to deter Hezbollah

It is no surprise that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reacted almost immediately to Israel's assassination of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri outside Beirut earlier this week. Israel had previously made clear that it would target Hamas leaders wherever it was found, and Nasrallah responded by threatening to retaliate if Israel attacked Hamas leaders inside Lebanese territory.

In the aftermath of the assassination, Mossad intelligence chief David Balnea said: repeated Israel's determination to hunt down Hamas members involved in the terrorist organization's brutal October 7 attack on Israel. Therefore, Nasrallah had no choice. shout He called it a “flagrant Israeli invasion,” characterized the attack as a “grave and dangerous crime that cannot be ignored,” and threatened a “response and punishment.”

But what Nasrallah did not say was far more important. Hezbollah leaders did not promise all-out war against the Jewish state. He did not even commit to expanding the militia's operations beyond current levels, including firing a relatively limited number of missiles into towns and villages in northern Israel. Nasrallah said that if Israel launches an attack on Hezbollah forces, this is a step that right-wing extremists in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, and reportedly even Netanyahu himself, have been advocating for the past few weeks. There is no other choice but to claim that there is. He will adhere to “no caps” and “no rules” in his response.

However, it is unlikely that Israel would launch an all-out attack against Hezbollah unless Nasrallah actually chooses to step up attacks on Israeli territory. If Prime Minister Netanyahu's claims that the war will continue for several more months are to be believed, Jerusalem's operations in Gaza appear to be far from over. The war has placed a severe strain on Israel's economy, given that thousands of reservists have been called up for military service. In fact, the Israel Defense Forces last week began releasing two brigades of thousands of reservists to allow them to return to civilian jobs. Extending the war to Lebanon would likely require the remobilization of reservists and further disrupt an already weakened economy.

Prime Minister Nasrallah, on the other hand, fears a full-scale Israeli response to Hezbollah's more violent attacks on Israeli targets, but does not want to do so to demonstrate commitment to its partners in the “Axis” of Iran, the Houthis and Hamas. You may feel forced to do so. resistance. ” Moreover, Nasrallah may consider the timing of the attack particularly appropriate given the following circumstances: departure A member of the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group from the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Ford Strike Group was intended to be the United States' primary deterrent against more aggressive Hezbollah attacks on Israel. This task force will be replaced by the USS Bataan, an amphibious assault ship with USS Mesa Verde and her USS Carter Hall. But Bataan's amphibious readiness group simply does not have the same firepower as its replacement force.

Ford is the Navy's most advanced aircraft carrier. It can carry up to 90 aircraft, including four squadrons of F-35 C and/or F/A-18 fighter/attack aircraft, as well as helicopters and various support aircraft. Additionally, the warships accompanying Ford, Thomas Hudner, Ramage, Kearny, and Roosevelt, are all modern. Arleigh Burke class destroyer Equipped with an advanced phased array radar, it can shoot down both missiles and drones.

Bataan is a very old ship, having been commissioned over 25 years ago. She can carry F-35 aircraft (F-35Bs) capable of short takeoff and vertical landing, but these aircraft number only about a quarter of the carrier's fighter-attack aircraft. Additionally, Bataan's two escort ships cannot match the firepower of Ford Strike Group's destroyers. The Mesa She Verde is a dock landing craft carrying two helicopters or tiltrotor aircraft Ospreys. Carter Hall, another of the ships in the Amphibious Ready Group, is even older than Bataan and carries no aircraft at all. Neither ship is equipped with the phased array radar that distinguishes Ford's escorts.

The Biden administration insisted that U.S. deterrence would remain in place even with Ford's withdrawal. Even the presence of an aircraft carrier task force could not deter Hezbollah from attacking Israel, so if Nasrallah chooses to intensify Hezbollah's attacks on the Jewish state, he could replace the carrier task force with a smaller, older, less powerful amphibious force. There is little chance that they will be replaced by quick response forces.

The US government has made clear it is trying to prevent the escalation of a broader war in the Middle East. Retiring the Ford Strike Group without an equally strong replacement is unlikely to achieve its objectives. If the Biden administration wants to deter such a war, it should send another carrier task force to the Eastern Mediterranean and do so as soon as possible.

Dov S. Zakheim is Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Foreign Policy Research Institute. From 2001 he served as the Under Secretary of Defense (Inspector General) and Chief Financial Officer of the Department of Defense until 2004, and from 1985 he served as the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense until 1987.