Republican presidential candidates bank on enthusiasm ahead of Iowa caucuses 

DES MOINES, Iowa – Republican presidential candidates are gauging enthusiasm ahead of Monday's Iowa caucuses as final polls show former President Donald Trump is likely to be the lone candidate.

A final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll released Saturday shows former President Trump leading in the presidential primary, followed by former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

But the same poll showed that enthusiasm for Haley fell short of that of Trump and DeSantis. That factor, along with the impact of record low temperatures that could keep people at home, could be enough to decide the outcome of the country's first presidential nomination race.

Monday's caucus is expected to be the coldest in decades. Temperatures in the Des Moines area could reach -11 degrees and wind chills as low as -30 degrees, according to the National Weather Service.

“The wild card is the weather. Most of us politicians can look at trends and make sensible predictions, but this weather has been so extreme,” said David, an Iowa-based Republican strategist. Kochel said. “A number below 35 is too much for many people to deal with, and how much of an impact does it have on turnout, which candidates will benefit, and which candidates will have a lower turnout?” It is difficult to say whether it will suffer a significant decline.”

Enthusiasm can come into play there. According to the latest Des Moines Register poll, 49% of Republicans who say Trump is their first choice say they are “very enthusiastic” about him, while 34% and 22% say they are “very enthusiastic” about him. ” and “somewhat enthusiastically.”

Among Republicans who said DeSantis was their first choice, 23% said they were very enthusiastic about the governor, while 39% and 33% said they were “very” or “somewhat enthusiastic.” Meanwhile, only 9% of Republicans who said Haley was their first choice said they were “very enthusiastic.” Thirty percent said they were “very enthusiastic” about supporting Haley, while 49% said they were “somewhat enthusiastic.”

Haley addressed the enthusiasm gap in an interview on Fox News Sunday.

“I'm not worried. Look, I'm not a political pollster, so I'm not going to worry about the numbers,” Haley told the network, adding that campaign momentum locally is “strong.” .

“The only numbers that matter to me are the ones where we went up and everyone else went down. It shows we're doing the right thing,” she said.

Haley was forced to cancel Sunday's event in Dubuque due to weather and instead spoke to a crowd of 150 people in Ames with Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R).

When asked about the polls, a spokesperson for the pro-Haley Stand for America PAC pointed to DeSantis' lag in the polls.

“Nicki is in a great position in Iowa and is heading to New Hampshire next. She is the best candidate to take on Joe Biden,” said PAC spokeswoman Preya Samsander. “Ron DeSantis has a huge hurdle to accomplish on caucus night, and anything short of a first-place victory would be a failure for his campaign.”

Supporters of Ms Haley who attended campaign events said they were prepared to hold a caucus for the former ambassador despite the extreme cold.

“Today is just another day,” Haley supporter Bruce Young told The Hill at a campaign event in Ankeny on Thursday. “This is a real Iowa winter.”

“It's not going to stop us,” he added.

On Saturday, Mr. DeSantis and his representatives crisscrossed the state to campaign, despite treacherous road conditions caused by a snowstorm. DeSantis' team repeatedly pointed to the strength of its organization when asked about the weather.

“Ted Cruz, who I supported in 2016, I thought was one of the best organizations I've ever seen,” said a prominent Iowa evangelical who supports the Florida governor. Coach Bob Vander Plaats said. “DeSantis’ campaign is light years away.”

If the polls are correct, Trump is clearly the overwhelming leader in enthusiasm. However, the former president urged his supporters to brave the weather on Monday.

“Let's brave the weather and get out there and save America,” President Trump told a packed crowd at Simpson College outside Des Moines on Sunday.

Trump's supporters at the rally braved sub-zero temperatures, wind chill and, in some cases, treacherous roads.

“I couldn't get out of my driveway this morning,” said Peggy Hutchison, a Trump supporter who attended the rally despite the challenges along the way.

“Trump supporters, they're loyal. I don't think the weather affects them,” said Urbandale Republican volunteer Brad Boustead.

Boustead warned that while weather may not affect turnout among Trump supporters, caucus management and structure could.

“When you go to a Trump event, a lot of people have never been to a caucus, they don't care about local politics, they watch TV, they know everything that's going on in America, and Nancy -They know all about Pelosi. They know about Mitch McConnell, but they don't necessarily know who their local city council member is,” Boustead said. “So they might not show up to the caucuses because they're not interested in all these little things. They're like, 'I'm wearing a Trump hat, I'm wearing Trump socks, I'm wearing a Trump T-shirt. I'm going to vote for him in November,' but they're ignoring the importance of this caucus.”

Iowa strategists and voters warn that caucuses tend to be unpredictable to begin with, and that weather is just an added factor to the scenario.

“All we have to do is stick together and see the results tomorrow night,” Kochel said. “Like many Iowa caucuses, this one could be packed with surprises.”