Using existing trends from the past 20 years, a new study predicts that thousands of American cities will experience population declines over the next 80 years.
Using population projections, researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago found that by 2100, nearly half of the roughly 30,000 U.S. cities will have a declining population.
According to the study, the population loss is equivalent to 12-23% of the population of these cities. The study further explains that the fallout from such a decline will pose “unprecedented challenges.”
These cities may face the loss of basic services such as transportation, clean water, electricity, and internet access.
Furthermore, the problem caused by population decline is a “reduction in the tax base”, which will definitely affect basic urban services.
“At the same time, population growth trends in resource-intensive suburbs and peri-urban cities will likely further exacerbate the challenge by depriving sparsely populated areas of access to much-needed resources,” the report says.
He added: “While immigration can play an important role, resource allocation challenges will continue unless there is a paradigm shift away from solely growth-based planning.”
The study found that urban areas in the Northeast and Midwest with lower median household incomes were more likely to experience population decline over time than regions in the Western and Southern United States.
The study authors predicted no human losses in Hawaii and the District of Columbia.
Population declines are occurring in many small cities across the country, but the phenomenon is also occurring in major “metropolitan centers” with “moderate to moderate declines” such as Detroit, Cleveland, and St. Louis.
These cities are facing population decline, but the surrounding “suburban and peri-urban cities” are attracting residents.
The same trend is occurring in southern metropolitan centers like Columbus, Georgia. Birmingham, Alabama. and Memphis, Tennessee.
Meanwhile, blue states such as California and New York have seen an exodus of residents to red states in the South after the coronavirus pandemic.
The phenomenon, dubbed “Sunbelt migration,” is driven by high living costs and high taxes, FOX Business previously reported.
