With four days left until New Hampshire's Republican primary, former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over his closest challenger, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-South Carolina).
of latest From Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/boston globe Tracking polls show Trump comfortably ahead with 52% support. That's up 2 points from Wednesday. Haley dropped her points to 35 percent. The lead went from 14 points to 17 points.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) has almost no registration, with an approval rating of just 6 percent.
“The survey was conducted Jan. 17-18 among 500 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 4.4%.” write The polling agency publishes these results daily.
Granted, a 3-point swing in Trump's direction isn't much of a swing, and may just be a rounding error. Still, tracking votes are more convenient than regular voting because they are tracking votes. The best case for Trump in this poll is that he has widened his lead over Haley. The worst-case scenario for Trump in this poll is still pretty sweet. He has only four days left, and Haley hasn't made enough of a move toward victory in New Hampshire, his must-win state.
Trump is also over the magic 50 percent mark, so it doesn't matter how close she gets. The election will be held as follows. 50% plus 1 vote equals a win.
At RealClearPolitics (RCP) average poll A poll in New Hampshire showed President Trump's approval rating rose 13.5 points, from 46.8 percent to 33.3 percent.
Of the 12 most recent polls in New Hampshire dating back to mid-December, Ms. Haley trails Mr. Trump by only 7 points, according to one poll. Trump has a double-digit lead in the other 11.
Another bright spot for Trump is that Haley's campaign has lowered its expectations in New Hampshire. Once a campaign that promised victory – even a landslide – the campaign now insists it promised nothing more than a “strong second place” and points to results like this:
new: @ChrisSununu Nikki Haley just said in New Hampshire that she “always wanted a strong second.” “That's the only expectation we've ever laid out,” he insists.
Sununu previously promised that Haley would “win in a landslide.”
Wrap the tape. pic.twitter.com/IEmWUskQyc
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) January 18, 2024
Sununu set the bar high for Haley.
12/31/2023: “Nikki Haley…could hand Trump a defeat no one thought possible in the coming weeks. And I think it's very likely that will happen.”
12/17/23: “Oh, this is an absolute win…if everyone who can vote in the primary does… https://t.co/jZTW3HxnNV
— Matt Wolking (@MattWolking) January 18, 2024
But let's say Haley does well in New Hampshire this Tuesday. Next up is Nevada on February 8th. polling The numbers are sparse, but what we do know shows Trump leading by anywhere from 30 points to 65 points. South Carolina Republicans voted on February 24th, and the RCP average of South Carolina polls gave President Trump a 30(!) point lead. Haley faces the depths of humiliation in his home state.
In theory, New Hampshire should be Nikki Haley country. It's a moderate state with a moderate Republican named Sununu who prefers moderate establishment Republicans. Yet Trump is ignoring it, at least according to polls.
Now that DeSantis' camp has collapsed, he is no longer a key component. If the polls (which have been pretty accurate so far) are correct, Trump could send Haley to take a shot at Hunter's father on Tuesday.
Trump is almost certain to be the Republican nominee. But if, by some miracle, Haley were to catch fire in New Hampshire, that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. It's a good thing that primary competition is strong. Narrow down the final candidates.
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