The start of the NFL playoffs was a little more calm than the wild ride of 13 points or less and only one blowout loss. Fans are hoping the divisional round will be a little more interesting, with only one team seeded fourth or lower still in the postseason.
based on draftkings sportsbook The odds are that three teams pulled off an upset in the wild card weekend. dallas cowboys, philadelphia eagles and cleveland browns. The two 4th seeded teams were both underdogs at home, but were able to come out victorious.
The same three people who lost despite being betting favorites were also Analytics favorites (via DVOA) going into Wild Card weekend. Last year, DVOA perfectly predicted the Wild Card weekend matchups. This year, the data point for the first weekend of the playoffs was barely above .500.
DVOA is broken Quality of play compared to league average While adjusting according to the strength of the opponent. This is one of the comprehensive analytical methods that helps you understand the beautiful game of football more deeply.
It's hard to understand how the Eagles collapsed at the end of the year, but DVOA says the Cowboys and Browns were upset by teams with better offenses. While Dallas and Cleveland were better teams overall primarily due to having top-five defenses, Green Bay and Houston scored over 40 points last weekend, including 27 and 24 points in the first half of the game. obtained respectively.
As we move into the divisional round, we'll be looking at specific differences on the offensive side of the ball.
To be clear, DVOA is not perfect, nor does it claim to be able to predict the winner of any particular game. Too many variables that cannot be codified, such as weather, injuries, referees, etc., can play a role in a single game sample. Or, in Philadelphia's case, a team that is just falling apart.
While this year's DVOA was far from perfect, last year's success in predicting games led us to consider what DVOA can tell us about the divisional rounds.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans
- Overall DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs. Houston 12th
- Offensive DVOA: No. 4 Baltimore vs. No. 14 Houston
- Defensive DVOA: No. 1 Baltimore vs. No. 16 Houston
Edge: Ravens – There is a large discrepancy in all three DVOA metrics mentioned above. The 9.5 point spread is tied for the highest this weekend and is consistent with analytical data.
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
- Overall DVOA: Buffalo 3rd vs. Kansas City 5th
- Offensive DVOA: No. 3 Buffalo vs. No. 8 Kansas City
- Defensive DVOA: No. 12 Buffalo vs. No. 7 Kansas City
Edge: Bills – Very close matchups overall patrick mahomes He led the worst of the two crimes. Again, the betting line (2.5) is in line with what we see in the data above on a near-toss-up matchup between his two powerhouse teams in the AFC.
Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers
- Overall DVOA: Green Bay 13th vs. San Francisco 2nd
- Offensive DVOA: Green Bay 6th vs. San Francisco 1st
- Defensive DVOA: Green Bay 27th vs. San Francisco 4th
corner: 49ers – In the other game with a 9.5 point difference, San Francisco has a big difference on defense, but on offense they are pretty close to DVOA. Based on what happened last weekend, even if the Niners come out victorious, it could be a closer game than expected.
Tump Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions
- Overall DVOA: Tampa Bay 18th vs. Detroit 7th
- Offensive DVOA: 20th Tampa Bay vs. Detroit 5th
- Defensive DVOA: 14th Tampa Bay vs. Detroit 13th
Edge: Lions – If Detroit doesn't spend all of its mental energy beating Matt Stafford at home last week, the home crowd should be able to celebrate and expect another big win this week. packers Moved so they could host the NFC Championship Game. The overall difference is tied for the largest, and the 15th place difference in offense will be the largest this weekend.
DVOA, which was perfect in last year's wild card round but flawed this year, has a chance to get back on track in predicting the winner of this week's matchups. DVOA is not a predictive measure, but data provides other information when making betting decisions, discussing the playoffs with colleagues, or making day-to-day fantasy decisions.
