Texas should be better.
The Longhorns have too much talent to fall to 1-3 in conference play with losses to West Virginia and UCF.
Even if the Big 12 is a tough opponent, Max Abmas, Tyrese Hunter and Dillon Mitchell should be enough to achieve a winning record in the conference.
Baylor, on the other hand, shouldn't be this good. The Bears have the talent, but his early 14-3 record is buoyed by hot shooting. Their inside defense is in disarray and is the most concerning factor going forward.
So I'm buying low, hoping for the Longhorns to perform at their best this Saturday at the Forty Acres.
Baylor vs. Texas Prediction
(12 p.m. ET, ESPN)
The Bears are a guard- and ball-screen-heavy offense led by the elite duo of Ray J. Dennis and Jay-Cobe Watler. They run more pick-and-roll ball handler sets than almost anyone, and are very efficient at scoring from the rim and perimeter thanks to the duo's 29 points per game. .
However, the Horns have been relatively solid against breaking dribble drives, ranking in the top 80 nationally in allowed PPP (.69) for pick-and-roll ball handlers. His trio of Abmas, Hunter, and Mitchell are borderline elite perimeter ball-screen defenders who can work with Bear guards.
Stopping the Bears' volcanic ball screen sets turns them into shooters. Baylor's dominance thus far has been due to their 3-point shooting percentage exceeding 40%, and the perimeter is always available even when the rim is unavailable.
But no team can shoot it all season long. ShotQuality predicts his shooting percentage should be closer to 36% based on the “quality” of his attempts, as the Bears are posting an unsustainable 1.44 PPP on unguarded catch-and-shoot jumpers. doing. This is about 0.34 higher than expected.
If Texas thwarts Baylor's ball screen sets, the Bears will have to hit their way to victory. Things could get even worse if an impending shooting regression occurs.
That happened Tuesday in Baylor's loss to Kansas State. The Wildcats held Baylor's pick-and-roll ball handlers to a 0.55 PPP, forcing the Bears to fall behind on 28 3-point attempts. The regression train arrived at the Waco station, but the Bears made just five attempts from downtown (18%) and had a season-low effective field goal percentage of 32.9%.
To make matters worse, the Horns boast an elite rim defense, ranking in the top 20 nationally in close range shots allowed. The Bears may not score points at all three levels with her.
On the other side of the court, Texas runs an interior-all-based offense that relies on cutters, handoffs, short rolls, and post actions.
Scott Drew runs a no-middle defensive scheme, which typically keeps the ball handler close to the sideline and baseline and keeps the offense away from the rim.
Unfortunately, the Bears defense has regressed significantly. He was unable to stop off the dribble, allowing 33 paint points per game (30th percentile) on a 47% shooting clip (9th percentile). T
Mitchell and Dylan Diss could eat here, as their successors' short rolls (1.2 PPP allowed, 9th percentile) and cut defense (1.2 PPP allowed, 27th percentile) were poor.
Baylor's rim is open to anyone, and the Horns want to score from close range – Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation in at-the-rim PPP (1.36).
Baylor should open Saturday as the short-term favorite, but all major predictive analysis sites have Texas as the short-term favorite. This match could be a classic case of favoring the wrong team.
Texas beat Baylor in Austin last season, and the Longhorns are in desperate need of a win. The team has hit a wall after losing three of their four games, but we hope for the best from Rodney Terry in a great game on Saturday afternoon.
It's also worth mentioning that ranked teams have struggled mightily on the road this season, posting a pathetic 33-57 ATS record. No. 9 Baylor could suffer another tough road loss — one way or another, the Bears will likely suffer more losses.
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Baylor vs. Texas Nominations
Pick: Texas ML (-110, FanDuel)
