US support for Ukraine: The difference between victory and defeat 

The Ukrainian people have been in a state of self-defense not only since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion in February 2022, but also since the illegal annexation of Crimea and the first invasion of Ukraine's Donbas region in 2014. It will continue to fight the Russian military, which has invaded, occupied and bombed it. . This is true regardless of whether Congress passes President Biden's additional demands, including $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. However, the passage of this aid could be the difference between victory and defeat for Ukraine.

A defeat would leave Ukraine at the mercy of a Kremlin determined to eradicate independent Ukrainian identity and expose other countries in the region to potential Russian expansion. It would also be a serious blow to U.S. leadership and prestige, and would require steps even more costly than current support for Ukraine to protect America's vital interests in Europe.

Ukrainians have shown great courage and determination to defend their homeland, freedom, and lives from President Putin's brutal attacks, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, and even genocide. Contrary to the predictions of many, including President Putin, that the Ukrainians were outnumbered and outnumbered and would soon be defeated. regained more than 50% control The first land occupied by the Russian army.

Since last summer, when Ukraine's much-publicized counterattack began, it has achieved successes. drove Russia's Black Sea Fleet from its base In Sevastopol. The counterattack defied the expectations of many people, including the three of us. But given the time Russia has had to prepare its defenses and the drag on the West's part in providing Ukraine with what it needs to penetrate those defenses, those hopes will never materialize. It wasn't on point.

Congressional approval of aid to Ukraine will not lead to an immediate military victory for Ukraine, as long-promised weapons will take time to arrive in Ukraine's hands. But it would be a huge morale boost for the fighting Ukrainians and the Ukrainian leadership, and would at least prevent a Russian victory.

Conversely, President Putin predicts that parliament will not be able to pass additional legislation. If he is proven wrong, it would be a blow not only to his plans for Ukraine, but also to the Russian military fighting on the front lines. caused over 300,000 casualties. They see no end to their being treated like cannon fodder, and at some point, as morale dwindles, they may say enough is enough.

Europeans who have surpassed the United States in aid pledged and provided We will urge Ukraine to continue supporting the passage of additional legislation through parliament. meanwhile, Guests Western powers willing to sacrifice Ukrainian territory and millions of Ukrainians for the never-ending occupation of Russia will see their dangerous efforts undone.

Ukrainians have never asked us to send troops to fight for them, but they need our weapons and support.Despite the terrible losses the country has endured, Ukrainians big profit Refuse to make territorial concessions to Putin or negotiate with the Russian leader, who has repeatedly shown that Putin's words on the deal mean nothing.Ukrainian stay optimistic According to a recent study, about the chances of winning the war for your country.

The steely determination of Ukrainians to win this war, defined as expelling all Russian soldiers from Ukrainian soil and regaining control of the remaining approximately 20 percent of the occupied territory, is determined by the determination of Ukrainians to win this war, defined by the fact that their country suffers It's amazing when you think about the terrible losses that have occurred and wonder about them. Western countries have pledged to continue supporting them.

Western appeasementists ignore Russia's war crimes in occupied Ukraine and what would happen to more Ukrainians if Moscow took control of other parts of the country. Nor does it recognize the danger of reciprocating Putin's aggression. Furthermore, President Putin has shown no interest in ending the war through negotiations, despite this. simple reporting and Explanation On the contrary.

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar: 'If Ukraine doesn't get support from the EU and US, Putin will win' said last month At the European Union Summit. And Ukraine will lose. It's that simple.

If Western countries cut aid to Ukraine, other European countries such as Moldova and Georgia could become Putin's next targets. Putin may even feel emboldened to try out NATO allies, such as the Baltic states and new member Finland. As Central and Eastern European countries well know, for hundreds of years Russia has threatened, oppressed, and invaded her neighbors. Even under President Putin, that trend clearly hasn't stopped.

Additionally, China will become more assertive, increasing the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan and creating space for a more assertive Chinese policy in the South China Sea. Iran also provided important support to Moscow In the operation against Ukraine, we would think it would be emboldened to cause further mayhem in the Middle East and endanger our own and allied forces in the region. US leadership will be weakened.

Withdrawing U.S. aid would allow Russia to move further into Ukraine, threatening the integrity of Ukraine's defenses and putting even Kiev at risk. If that happens, Ukrainians will continue to fight, but the war will turn into a bloody and prolonged insurgency.

We have already seen what happens if Western aid is delayed. The Ukrainian military has already had to significantly reduce defensive artillery fire. For example, in Europe, severely lacking Under delivery The promise of a million shells To Ukraine. The United States has stalled deliveries of a number of critical weapons systems, including additional air defense systems. This allowed Russian forces to move closer to the line of contact and launch a number of attacks above and below the line, as well as brutal missile operations across Ukraine.

Congress and the administration can avoid all of this by finding compromises on border policy. These issues were tied together with additional requests from the Biden administration, which would free up aid to Ukraine. There is still strong support for aid to Ukraine in the Senate and ample support in the House, but even Ukraine's strongest supporters want a deal on the border to secure votes.

With sufficient long-range fire, adequate air defense, a full drone force, and a squadron of F-16 fighter jets—all possible with promised American and European funding—the Ukrainian military could It would be possible to turn the tide and push Russian forces back into the international fold in Ukraine. Borders were recognized in 1991.

Victory for Ukraine is possible, but it will require support from the West. Any further delay would prove to be incredibly costly, underscoring the urgency of helping Ukraine turn the tide and deal a fatal blow to President Putin.

David J. Kramer He is executive director of the George W. Bush Institute and former assistant secretary of state for the Office of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor in the George W. Bush administration. John Herbst He is Senior Director of the Atlantic Council Eurasia Center and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine. William Taylor He is a former US ambassador to Ukraine.