We advanced to the Final Four.
Welcome to Championship Sunday.
Unfortunately, I don't think you'll ever have the best duo in a football game.
I'm sure both favorites will roll into the Super Bowl.
Chiefs vs. Ravens predictions
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds: Ravens -3.5, over/under 44.5
time/tv: 3pm ET, CBS
Thanks to the magic and explosive play of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs managed to slip past the Bills.
But don't be fooled. Last Sunday, the Bills went up and down the field.
Buffalo had a 61% rushing success rate, with over 180 yards rushing on nearly 5 yards per carry.
The Bills finished with 368 total yards and 27 first downs, decimating the Chiefs' front seven as they marched down the field on every drive.
And that's been the Chiefs' problem all season — their rush defense stinks. Kansas City ranks 27th in rushing defense DVOA and 28th in EPA per rush allowed.
Only four NFL defenses have allowed more yards per carry than the Chiefs' 4.5 yards per carry.
This bodes poorly for Baltimore's dominant rush-first offense.
The Ravens took advantage of Lamar Jackson's rushing ability, leading the league in rushing percentage (51%) and ranking third in EPA per rush and rushing success rate.
The Bills similarly have a dominant rushing offense, but they don't rely on the run game as much.
Only the Bears ran for more yards (2,720) than the Ravens this regular season.
Baltimore will dog-walk Kansas City's front seven, just like Buffalo did last week.
However, the difference in this game will be on the defensive side of the ball.
Sean McDermott's tenure has been plagued by overly passive defense in key moments. Like last week, the Bills get tight and allow too many easy chunk pass plays in big games.
Baltimore's secondary is one of the best in the league. The Ravens rank him second in EPA per dropback allowed, and he ranks second in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade.
Led by stud safety Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens allowed an elite 26 percent completion rate on passes 20 or more yards downfield, with just two touchdowns and just six completions.
Mahomes can outperform rushing defenses against McDermott's defense, but he won't be able to do the same against a very well-coached team led by Mike McDonald.
For example, look at how the Ravens dominated CJ Stroud and Houston last week. Stroud completed 19 of 33 pass attempts for just 175 yards passing, but the Texans never reached the red zone.
If not for the punt return touchdown, the Texans would have finished with three points.
I don't expect the Ravens to hold Mahomes to just three points, but they played well enough to produce a few stops while Jackson & Co. controlled the ball with a very successful rush-heavy drive for 60 minutes. should be done.
I'm glad we were able to get a field goal and a hook for the home team in that scenario. The Ravens look to be among the Super Bowl champions, and they'll show it Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Ravens picks: Ravens -3.5
Lions vs. 49ers predictions
Lions vs. 49ers odds: 49ers -7, over/under 51
time/tv: 6:30pm ET, FOX
I want to bet on the Lions.
The story is spectacular. The offense is dominant and balanced under the guidance of Ben Johnson. The front seven is solid behind stud pass rusher Aidan Hutchison.
Yeah, you can't trust Jared Goff on the street in an outside situation.
In the comfort of the Ford Field Dome, Goff completed 70 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 107.9 rating.
In nine road games, he completed 64 percent of his passes, threw 11 touchdowns and only six interceptions, giving him an 89.4 rating. Goff was sacked six times more on the road than at his home.
Goff is a sniper who can complete passes in perfect conditions, a clean pocket inside the dome.
But put him against Nick Bosa at Levi's Stadium and he's no longer an elite quarterback in the NFL.
Unfortunately, the Lions need him to be an elite quarterback.
They'll run the ball well against San Francisco's admittedly terrible rushing defense (and all-around front seven), but Goff will have to generate chunk passing plays to keep up with Kyle Shanahan for 60 minutes.
Especially because Detroit's secondary is terrible. The Lions rank bottom-seven in EPA per dropback allowed and pass completion percentage.
They rank 29th in Pro Football Focus' coverage grade, with Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor ranking outside the top 100 of 130 cornerbacks who qualify in overall grade.
Say what you want about Brock Purdy, but Shanahan knows how to attack him under center.
The Niners rank first in the NFL in EPA per dropback and pass completion percentage. Purdy is producing 0.10 EPA per play more than the second-best quarterback.
Even if Deebo Samuel is unable to play this weekend, they will have no shortage of weapons to run all over the field against Detroit's lackluster defensive backs.
The Niners gained the second-most yards in the regular season behind catches, and the Lions allowed the ninth-most yards.
Detroit's run to the NFC Championship Game will be remembered, but the clock struck midnight for the Lions. There are too many holes in the secondary for the Niners to exploit, and Goff can't keep up in outside situations.
Lions vs 49ers picks: 49ers -7
