Winners and losers from the New Hampshire primaries

The results of the nation's first primary election on Tuesday were good news for the two candidates with the best chance of winning each party's nomination, former President Trump and President Biden.

Trump is poised to defeat Nikki Haley in the Granite State by about 10 points, even though the former U.N. ambassador has been close to Trump's lead in polls for months. Biden fended off challenges from a handful of leading candidates in an unusual primary that technically did not feature him on the ballot.

Both candidates leave the Granite State primary with renewed momentum heading into the November general election.

Here are the winners and losers of New Hampshire's primary.

winner

donald trump

Trump entered New Hampshire with high hopes after his landslide victory in the Iowa caucuses earlier this month. And he met with just about everyone, all but guaranteeing his path to the nomination.

With his victory in the Granite State on Tuesday night, he became the first non-incumbent Republican candidate in modern history to win both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

As of press time, Trump comfortably won the primary with 55% of the vote to Haley's 44%, but that difference could change.

The former president has already acted as if he were the leading candidate throughout much of the campaign, skipping the Republican primary debates entirely and attacking Biden more than his Republican opponent.

On Tuesday, she cited early wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to make the case for Haley to step down and for the remaining Republicans to unite around her. There are signs that Republicans are doing just that. Shortly after the race was called on Tuesday night, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) endorsed President Trump.

With two wins in South Carolina and a huge lead in the polls, Trump remained on Tuesday night with a clear path to the nomination.

joe biden

With Biden's campaign absent from the New Hampshire primary and his rivals focusing on the state, the president risked an embarrassing defeat on Tuesday.

However, a write-in campaign by Biden supporters appears to have been successful, and he easily defeated challengers such as Representative Dean Phillips (D-Minnesota) and author Marianne Williamson. Many votes have yet to be counted, but thanks to the write-in effort, Biden is the clear winner, with a 50-point lead over his closest challenger.

Despite some bitter contention between the national Democratic Party and the New Hampshire Democratic Party over the decision to reschedule the primary, the state's Democratic Party appears ready to put aside their grievances and rally behind the incumbent. Looked.

This will come as a relief to Biden's allies, as the president has struggled with low approval ratings and polls show no one wants him to be the Democratic nominee.

Tuesday's results will help their argument that the party's voters primarily support him. And with Mr. Biden officially voting in South Carolina on February 3rd, that claim will only get stronger in the future.

Third party candidate

The victory between Trump and Biden in New Hampshire raises the possibility of a rematch in the state, which many Americans say they don't want.

This is likely to intensify arguments for third-party alternatives as an alternative to the two unpopular major party candidates. Several third-party candidates have already entered the race, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein.

Polls so far show Biden and Trump with wide leads, but as parties rally around their rivals, more voters will support these insurgent challengers. there is a possibility.

And while even a strong third-party candidate is highly unlikely to win the election, he or she could act as a spoiler and swing the race in one candidate's favor.

loser

nikki haley

Haley is essentially focusing her strategy on three states: Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. But of the three states, New Hampshire appears most likely to support her over Trump, making it a key measure of her political strength in the primary.

Unfortunately for Hayley, she fell short of expectations on Tuesday.

As recently as a few weeks ago, Ms. Haley was trailing Mr. Trump by just a few points in multiple polls, but by Tuesday night she was on track to lose by double digits.

In a speech after the results were announced, Ms. Haley expressed optimism to her supporters, declaring that the campaign was “not over yet.”

She was still able to point out that she did reasonably well, winning more than 40% of the vote in the state, providing some comfort to donors and supporters. But he will have work to do to regain ground in South Carolina, where he is trailing by 30 points in The Hill/Decision Desk polling average.

She also benefited from New Hampshire's rules that allow voters who have not declared a party affiliation to vote in the primary. CNN exit poll The poll found that registered Republicans in the state supported Trump by a 3-1 margin, and two-thirds of undeclared voters supported Haley.

South Carolina too there is no need Voters must be registered members of a political party to vote in the primary, but Haley will need to make significant improvements to close the gap among registered Republicans if she is to remain in the race long-term. be.

In the end, Tuesday night exposed the challenges the former U.N. ambassador faces in his quest to defeat Trump.

dean phillips

Mr. Phillips focused his long-term goal of opposing Mr. Biden's renomination on New Hampshire, and was the first state he notified when announcing his candidacy. If there's one place Phillips has had the most success, it's in the Granite State.

Mr. Biden is not on the ballot due to a dispute over the primary date, and Mr. Phillips has repeatedly criticized Mr. Biden for not campaigning for New Hampshire voters' support, and has weighed on Mr. Biden's chances of winning. I had an opportunity to emphasize my point.

But these arguments appear to have had little traction with New Hampshire voters. Mr. Phillips barely received more than 20% of the vote, while Mr. Williamson, another notable big vote-getter, received less than 5%.

Ahead of the primary, Phillips declared that reaching the 20s would be “highly unusual.”

But even though the incumbent is not on the ballot, Mr. Biden won only a fraction of the vote, and a more competitive primary election will begin in about 10 days.

The Biden campaign tweeted several posts Tuesday night criticizing President Trump's victory and the Republican MAGA movement. Remarkably, it doesn't even mention Phillips or the Democratic primary.

2024 Primary Season

Presidential primaries have historically been dynamic battles between candidates vying for the top spot.

That wasn't the case this year.

Trump and Biden were likely to be the nominees of their parties at the start of the election cycle, and remain so now. Their status is unlikely to change unless there are special circumstances.

As a result, the normally lively primary season has become unusually predictable.

Super Tuesday, the first Tuesday in March with more primaries than any other day, traditionally determines the clear favorite for the nomination. This year, however, the long-anticipated results are likely to be officially confirmed.