Multiple K Street sources told The Hill they expect federal lobbying to remain strong heading into the election, bucking the trend after another strong year for the influence industry. He said he was there.
The final quarter of this year saw protracted House elections following the historic ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), a government shutdown deadline just before Thanksgiving, and an eventual shutdown that ended in January. postponed.
Congress has already passed stopgap funding this year, extending two federal funding deadlines until March.
“It feels a bit like Groundhog Day,” Karishma Page, a partner at K&L Gates and co-leader of the firm's public policy and legal practice, told The Hill. “At the end of last year, we were anticipating not just one, but two possible government shutdowns. And we avoided another crisis today, but six weeks from now we will have another one.” may occur.”
The Biden administration is also rolling out new environmental, virtual currency and SEC disclosure rules as the election approaches, drawing ire from industry groups and politicians. .
“The administration's very active policy, regulatory and enforcement policies will continue to be of interest,” Will Moschella, co-chair of Brownstein's government relations department, told The Hill.
Some big policy battles also loom on the Hill. The pharmaceutical industry is pushing for pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) reform, retailers are battling with big banks over credit card “swipe fee” charges, and several provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs The country is about to face a tax cliff in 2025. Employment laws are set to expire.
Congress also needs to pass a huge package that includes FAA reauthorization and a farm bill. Congress renewed both bills every five years, and both were set to expire in September, but lawmakers pushed through the bills along with other funding. In an era of legislative gridlock, these packages have never been a prime target for lobbyists looking to advance their clients' legislative priorities.
“It seems like a broken record, but only a few large trains will legally leave Washington, D.C., in the coming months,” Mindset partner Langston Emerson told The Hill. Ta.
Federal lobbyists raised money last year amid partisan tensions on Capitol Hill and a major regulatory push by the Biden administration. Many top lobbying outlets not only exceeded the benchmark in October-December quarterly profits compared to the same period in 2022, but also exceeded the highest annual sales.
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck ranks first in federal lobbying revenue for the third year in a row. The law and lobbying giant hit his $16 million in revenue in a single quarter for the first time, and last year he earned more than $62.6 million, setting a lobbying annual revenue record.
Companies outside the Big Ten also saw revenue rise amid uncertainty and increased regulatory activity. Monument Advocacy's annual federal lobbying revenue increased 16% from $13.6 million in 2022 to $15.8 million in 2023.
“As Congress continues to gridlock, and the Legislature tries to clean up before election-year campaigning overtakes the agenda, Monument is working with clients on major bills such as the Farm Bill, AI policy, FISA reauthorization, immigration reform, and spending. “We are working with Monument Advocacy,” said C. Stewart Verdeli Jr., CEO of Monument Advocacy.
Bipartisan interest and general hype about artificial intelligence (AI) has led to a particularly notable increase in lobbying activity.Nonprofit organizations that fund politics OpenSecrets reported More than 350 customer lobbyists reported working on AI-related issues in the first nine months of 2023, more than double the number of groups that lobbied on AI in all of 2022. was.
“When you hear people say nothing is going on in Washington, you're not participating in the important policy negotiations that are going on,” Lauren Monroe, principal at BGR Group, told The Hill. Told.
“Of course, we all know that there are deep partisan divides, but there is common ground between groups of members on different sides of the aisle on issues of labor, trade, artificial intelligence, and even cryptocurrencies. There are also unusual areas where you see dots. Companies that ignore these early patterns do so at their own peril.”
Federal government lobbying spending declined during the recent presidential campaign. Several lobbyists suggested this year could reverse that trend.
“We do not expect engagement with policymakers to slow down, as many have speculated from time to time,” Moschella said, citing uncertainty surrounding the outcome of upcoming elections and ongoing regulatory activity. did.
According to , total lobbying activity continued to increase throughout the 2000s, reaching $4.2 billion in 2009 after adjusting for inflation. federal lobbying data Analyzed by OpenSecrets. However, over the next decade, the lobbying bubble deflated due to the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the protracted lobbying around the Affordable Care Act, and a lull coincided with a presidential election year. became.
After adjusting for inflation, total lobbying activity fell from $3.82 billion in 2011 to $3.72 billion in 2012, and from $3.52 billion in 2015 to $3.4 billion in 2016, according to OpenSecrets data. decreased to USD. Lobbying spending remained relatively flat from 2019 to 2020, at $3.55 billion and $3.53 billion, respectively.
But federal lobbying spending has ballooned again, topping a nominal record $4.1 billion in 2022. Total federal lobbying spending will exceed $3.1 billion in the first nine months of 2023, potentially reaching a new record for total lobbying spending.
OpenSecrets told The Hill it is still calculating final quarter numbers.
“These are unprecedented times and always will be,” Page said. “We are truly entering a new era, and to truly navigate the uncertainties ahead, we need stakeholders to be ready, proactive, and continuously engaged. You really need it.”
A wave of retirements is also expected to shake up House and Senate races this year. That meant “a lot” of new members and “a lot of organizational knowledge was lost,” Emerson said.
“We're not starting from scratch, but there's going to be a lot of work to do to make sure people are educated and understand the situation and the situation,” Emerson said. “There will be a lot of work to do heading into 2025.”
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