A potential path to restoring Palestinian Authority rule in Gaza

As hostilities continue between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, efforts to develop a definitive strategy for the future of the enclave are fraught with complexity. Many countries advocate progress toward a two-state solution. For now, there is a global consensus, particularly emphasized by the United States, on the original agreement that the Palestinian Authority (PA) should take over control of Gaza after Israel’s military campaign against Hamas ends.

However, the Israeli government is firmly opposed to the idea of ​​PA rule in Gaza. Political dynamics within Israel have a major influence on this position, with many right-wing politicians working for years to delegitimize the PA. But this is not just a matter of political leanings. There is broad consensus across Israel’s political framework regarding the PA’s support for terrorism.

Over the past 20 years, the PA has established a tripartite operational framework. First, there are security agencies dedicated to cooperating with Israel on security issues, with sporadic cooperation in particular targeting terrorism and managing domestic opposition. Second, the PA developed propaganda and educational institutions dedicated to maintaining its fundamental anti-Zionist ideology. Finally, there is a substantial patronage network centered around the Martyrs Fund. “Pay the price for killing.” The bill would provide substantial welfare payments to the families of Palestinians imprisoned or killed in connection with the Israeli occupation, whether during protests or acts of terrorism.

These latter two factors contribute significantly to Israel’s distrust of the Palestinian Authority. Education and propaganda systems perpetuate a culture that celebrates terrorism, martyrdom, and anti-Semitism, while Martyr Funds encourage acts of terrorism through financial rewards. The coexistence and functioning of these educational and financial systems not only sustains the ongoing conflict with Israel, but also fosters radicalism within Palestinian society, resulting in a complex of ideological indoctrination and financial encouragement. The matrix plays a key role in the perpetuation of hostilities and extremist sentiment.

Israeli security officials and American diplomats often emphasize the great benefits of security coordination with the PA. However, the PA’s failure to implement necessary reforms in key areas continues to impede potential changes in the dynamics of Israel-PA relations.

The Palestinian Authority’s failure to enact substantive reforms is primarily the result of two factors. One is the near-civil division between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, the other is the plummeting popularity of the Palestinians among the Palestinian people due to widespread financial and political corruption. The first factor may be alleviated if Israel is able to achieve its objective of dismantling Hamas’ infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. However, the PA’s unpopularity due to corruption remains unresolved.

In a recent secret meeting in Riyadh involving the PA, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, Arab states urged the PA to implement key political and financial reforms deemed critical to facilitating the post-war transition and the possibility of a peace process. I asked them to start. Whether Arab states can persuade the PA to undertake meaningful reforms remains a major challenge. However, regardless of the outcome of these efforts, Israel cannot seriously consider allowing the restoration of Palestinian rule in Gaza without first addressing its main concerns: the Martyrs Fund and the nature of Palestinian education. It is unlikely that it will.

Completely ending the Martyrs Fund in its current state is not possible at this time and could cause extreme instability in the West Bank.a recent opinion polls The majority of Palestinians support violent resistance, with at least 60 percent of Palestinians in the West Bank wanting the current PA disbanded, and at least 70 percent supporting the October 7 attack. It was shown that Moreover, the patronage system is fully integrated into Palestinian social, economic, and political life, making it a social contract and a central institution of Palestinian political legitimacy. Many young Palestinians risked their lives and freedom to commit acts of murderous terrorism based on the PA’s promise to provide for their families. In 2016, report The fund is said to be supporting 35,000 Palestinian families.

While this fund is morally reprehensible, its cancellation would likely irrevocably destabilize the PA and the West Bank. The best solution is for the Fund to adhere to past commitments while ensuring that future incentives for terrorism are stopped, at least for those who actively engage in acts of overt violence and are killed or imprisoned. , all new rights may be frozen indefinitely. Maintain internal stability. A new Treasury Department should then be established to allocate welfare benefits to innocent victims of conflict who may have lost their lives in incidents unrelated to terrorism or armed resistance. This strategy balances the need for reform with the need to maintain stability.

Although the proposal to significantly reform the Martyrs Fund is essential to guiding the Palestinian Authority and Israel beyond the impact of the events of October 7, it is not a stand-alone solution. Other major overhauls are needed, including a systematic renewal and de-radicalization of PA education. system. The proposed adjustments to the future of the Martyrs’ Fund are very important as they address legitimate concerns about inciting terrorism through financial rewards.

For any Israeli regime, the political feasibility of granting significant concessions to the PA, which are crucial to restoring sovereignty in Gaza, depends on whether the PA discontinues its previous practices. Although establishing a workable framework for PA governance in Gaza may seem like a distant goal, the initiation of this reform could be the basis for constructive dialogue and compromise. Such discussions could pave the way to a realistic agreement that serves the interests of Israelis and Palestinians and provides a progressive path for all involved.

Eitan Chernoff is the CEO of Potomac Strategy, a consultancy firm that primarily advises governments, NGOs, and the private sector on geopolitics, security, and cooperation in the MENA region. Hussein Abubakr Mansour is a Washington-based analyst and writer specializing in Arab and Middle Eastern politics.