Ukraine looks for new start after Zelensky fires top general

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has fired his top commander in the biggest military shake-up since the Russian invasion, but it comes as Kiev faces pressure to overcome major setbacks in the war and a new start for Kiev. It shows that you are looking for.

President Zelenskiy last week fired General Valery Zarzhny, who had been the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces since 2021, but the dynamics on the battlefield remain in place, with the Ukrainian military facing significant challenges against a large Russian military. is unlikely to change. At the same time, further US security assistance is questionable.

However, by appointing Col. Oleksandr Shirsky, the former head of Ukraine’s ground forces, as the new commander-in-chief, President Zelenskiy has signaled that Kiev is seeking a new strategy and leadership to meet these challenges. Be able to convey targeted messages.

“Mr. Zelensky is looking for some way to influence the course of the war,” said David Silvey, a professor of defense policy at Cornell University. “The best thing he can do at this point is to remove Mr. Zarzhny.” Ta.

“I think this is more of a sign of desperation,” he added, summing up his thoughts: “There’s really nothing we can do to make a real difference, but we’re going to do something anyway.”

Although the exact reasons for his dismissal are unclear, Zarzhny’s removal had been in the works for weeks and was a predictable development following the public rift between him and Zelensky.

Minor rifts in their relationship emerged in 2022, such as when President Zelenskiy criticized the military for forcing Ukrainians to change their residence. And the rift widened further after the Ukrainian military’s setback last year.

Mr. Zarzhny has clashed with Mr. Zelenskiy in recent months after he expressed his opinions in the media. In an interview with The Economist in November, he called the war a “stalemate,” a claim disputed by Ukraine’s president. After the counterattack failed, the general took a gloomy view of the war and challenged Zelensky’s theory that Ukraine needed more weapons and aid to repel Russia. He wrote on CNN that Ukraine “must deal with reductions in military aid from key allies while battling political tensions at home.”

There had been speculation that Mr. Zarzhny posed a political threat to Mr. Zelenskiy because of his immense popularity, but Jean-Marc Ricqueli, head of global and emerging risks at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, said this time. said that his dismissal was likely aimed at the story of the duel between the two leaders. .

“On the one hand, Mr. Zelensky’s story is hopeful and that we are doing our job to secure the support of the West.” “And on the other hand, there is also a more realistic narrative that things are not going according to plan, that Ukraine is currently suffering, and that the situation in Ukraine is not going to change anytime soon unless technological advances occur. The two narratives were in conflict, sending two conflicting messages to our Western allies.”

Announcing the changing of the guard on Thursday, Zelenskiy said it was “not about politics.” He thanked Zarzhini for his time and offered him another post, but said it was time for a new leader and “the generalship must be reset.” he emphasized.

Mr. Zarzhni gained immense popularity for leading the war in the early days when Ukraine repelled a Russian invasion and regained territory in the Kherson-Kharkov counteroffensive in the fall of 2022.

But the tide has since turned against Ukraine after last year’s much-anticipated counterattack failed to break through the Russian trenches, which had built a heavily defended 600-mile front.

Ukraine is also running low on ammunition and resources, a major concern in Kiev as the United States continues to debate whether to send new funds to the Ukrainian military. Zelenskiy has visited Washington twice since September to meet with Congressional leaders.

In his speech on Thursday, President Zelenskiy pointed to the difficulties of Ukraine’s war and warned that Ukrainians are “talking less and less about victory.”

President Zelenskiy said of the failed 2023 counteroffensive that “we could not achieve our national goals on land.” “To be honest, the sense of confinement is affecting the national mood.”

Ukraine’s president also promoted a “realistic and detailed” action plan for 2024 and tasked the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces, Shirsky, with developing the strategy.

Schilski quickly announced a “new mission” that included speeding up weapons shipments, rotating troops, and investing heavily in strategies such as drones and electronic warfare.

“Only by changing and continuously improving the means and methods of war will we be able to achieve success on this path,” he wrote on Telegram.

But Shirsky will face the same challenges as his predecessor, many of them out of his control, such as Ukraine’s dependence on U.S. aid.

Robert Mallett, a retired U.S. Navy vice admiral and current professor at Syracuse University, said the war has entered a new phase and predicted there would be a “reset of operational tactics” but no major battlefield movements.

“We do not expect to see any dramatic changes in the activities of the Ukrainian military,” he said. “But the leadership remains strong. I think we will see clear evidence of that in the coming months.”

Shirsky is known for his successful defense of Kiev from Russian forces in 2022 and for his Kharkov counteroffensive, which reclaimed land from Moscow in the same year.

After serving in the Soviet Union and attending military school in Moscow, he began fighting Russian-backed separatist forces in 2014 and quickly rose through the ranks. According to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), he has been praised not only for his tactical agility and surprise operations, but also for maintaining morale.

Mr. Silsky is not yet as popular as Mr. Zarzhny, who is almost as popular as Mr. Zelensky. It is unclear whether changes in command will have a demoralizing effect on troops, especially in the midst of a brutal war.

Elina Beketova, a democracy researcher at CEPA, said Ukrainians spent much of Thursday mourning the loss of Zarzhny, but have bounced back to rally around Shirsky.

“For many months, [Zaluzhny] “He is the brave face of the Ukrainian army and has a lot of support,” Beketova said, but “people are open to the idea and feel that this is a good start to something new.” “There is,” he said.

President Zelenskiy said he wanted a “different approach to mobilization” and rotation of troops on the front lines, along with a change of command.

During Zarzhny’s tenure, the Ukrainian leader clashed with the military over a proposal to mobilize about 500,000 troops to the war effort. This turned out to be a political risk, and President Zelenskiy said he needed more time to consider the proposal, but a bill to strengthen the mobilization law has already been passed by Ukraine’s parliament.

Silsky is expected to bring a new perspective to troop rotation, a critical part of the war in which commanders must proactively replace soldiers who have spent months on the front lines and become exhausted.

Atlantic Council Millennium Fellow Arup Sevimlisoy said the appointment of a new commander could also lead to a more rational dialogue with the United States, which hopes to protect Russian front lines during a counterattack in 2023. It reportedly had a small dispute with Ukraine over where best to strike.

Sevimlisoy said there should be more “direct synchronicity with the United States” and that Ukraine was evolving into a more “competent wartime state,” which would naturally require the support of domestic and political leaders. It was assessed that this would involve the replacement of

“Ukraine’s military has transformed from a mere defense force fighting against Russia to an extensive force protecting Ukraine’s tenants. [the West] “Because this campaign…is not just a campaign to stop Russia,” he said. “This is a broader conflict and we are preserving the integrity of NATO.”

Analysts say shake-ups at the top of the military are normal in long wars, giving Zelenskiy’s government an opportunity to try something new.

However, Edward Arnold, a European researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, said that with Russia pressing for the capture of the eastern Donetsk town of Avdiivka, there was a real possibility that Mr Silsky’s withdrawal could backfire if he oversaw the withdrawal. He warned that it was a risk.

Silsky is “known as a defender in Kiev, but [for] After the Kharkov counterattack, suddenly he is responsible for a withdrawal that the people did not want,” Arnold said. “It could backfire on Zelensky as well, since it was Mr Zelensky who changed the situation and there have already been operational losses.”