Putin’s ramblings offer lessons on managing his successor and China

critics and commentators eviscerated 2 hours of tucker carlson interview With President Vladimir Putin. Any journalistic pretensions Carlson may have had before the interview were shattered. In Leninist terms, he was “.”convenient idiot” and straight men to Kremlin power.

Putin’s rambling 40-minute excursion on why Ukraine became part of Russia was fired By the West. His repeated rationale for the invasion to reunite Ukraine and Russia, protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and destroy the stain of Nazism remained incredible. And he continued to blame the United States and NATO for causing the current crisis with Russia.

That said, let’s get rid of the clichés and rhetoric. What can we learn from watching Putin’s two-hour debate? Several points emerge.

First, President Putin claimed that Russia has always taken the diplomatic high ground and tolerated all the mistakes and misjudgments of the West. despise Ignoring Russia and its interests was clearly the most irritating issue for him. The need, and indeed the desire, for respect and recognition was instinctive.

Ironically, he Admitted I like George W. Bush and have good things to say about the former president, but beyond the five post-Soviet NATO expansions, most provocations against Russia took place under the Bush administration.

President Putin did not mention Bush 43, but Abolition of the Ballistic Missile Interdiction Treaty, the list was long. deploys a missile defense system called Aegis Ashore NATO Europe to President Putin was denied Because the non-existent Iranian threat was actually a move against Moscow. That would have required a military response from Russia, but Putin said it would lead to advances in technology. advanced than the Western ones.

No script comment by president bush 2008 The NATO Bucharest summit, which promised the membership of Ukraine and Georgia, caused President Vladimir Putin a nervous breakdown. That year, Russia occupied parts of Georgia. abkhazia. And in 2014, after President Putin called the C.I.A. coup d’etat Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovych is dismissed and placed under Russian occupation crimea. Western countries’ reaction was negative.

The key takeaways from this interview came in the form of two questions and recommendations. First, how many of Putin’s colleagues in the Kremlin actually agree with the president, not as supplicants, but essentially? Second, at some stage Putin will step down. Will his successors share these views?

However, this recommendation is important. By reason of ignorance, amnesia, arrogance and its conviction, it isindispensable power”, the United States is unable to respect other countries and treat inferior countries with dignity. Perhaps one of the reasons Donald Trump seems to be I became friends with Initially, President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that as salesmen, treating customers with kindness was always a consideration. Indeed, dignity and respect may be as important, if not more important, than concrete diplomatic posturing in efforts to ease tensions with China.

For now, it is unclear who will follow Putin and when. however, inheritance The Soviet Union was founded in 1922, which may provide some insight. The triumvirate of Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev, Bulganin and Malenkov was followed by Khrushchev, Brezhnev, Andropov, Chernenko and finally Gorbachev.

Lenin is shot in the head in 1918, died six years later. Some transition was necessary until Stalin was defeated (and then killed) Trotsky. After Stalin’s death, changes continued. Brezhnev had been ill for years, and his successors soon passed away, leaving a clear path for Mikhail Gorbachev.

Although there are some news report, Putin appears to be in good health and is 71 years old. The law provides for a succession process, but unless he appoints a successor, as Boris Yeltsin did in 2000, the next president will likely rely on the transition group that followed Stalin. The difference is that elections are required under the constitution. Only then may a true successor emerge.

What is important is whether the next leader has a worldview similar to President Putin’s. Stalin was probably much more ruthless than Lenin. Interestingly, Khrushchev was a reformer and unsuccessfully tried to shift his spending from national defense to the public sector. Brezhnev and his successors were bureaucrats. And Gorbachev, in his zeal to modernize and reform the Soviet Union, caused it to collapse.

More likely, technocrats and bureaucrats could take over after three decades of Putin’s rule. This could also improve relations with Western countries.

The question is whether Western countries can wait that long. The answer is a resounding no unless the Ukraine war is resolved quickly.

Dr. Harlan Ullman He is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and the primary author of the “Shock and Awe” military doctrine. His 12th book, The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Pooming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at General, is available for purchase on Amazon. X/Twitter: @harlankullman.