In the words of Gerald Ford, one year from now, our long national nightmare will be over. At least until the November results are in, the nightmare will be over for about half the country. Someone has just been sworn in as president, a new Congress will be sworn in, and a divided government is likely to remain.
Given that our deeply polarized and dysfunctional political system is only getting worse, expectations for anyone’s legislative policy in 2025 should be tempered, to say the least. . Rather, governance based on self-imposed crises will continue to become the norm. And whether we like it or not, several fiscal deadlines that force action toward 2025 will dominate the legislative agenda. These include the need to raise the debt ceiling again and face the expiration of tax cuts and discretionary spending set in 2017. As part of the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
The new idea is to recognize this reality and begin the process now to create a comprehensive plan to address debt issues well before these deadlines. Sound like fantasy? Fortunately, that’s exactly what exists. The vehicle currently moving through Congress may be our best hope for bringing forward these deadlines and beginning to move forward on an unsustainable debt trajectory.
House Budget Committee Recently marked up laws Establishes a bipartisan, 16-member commission tasked with developing a plan to curb the unsustainable debt trajectory. The bill has significant similarities to the bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate by Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Joe Manchin (D-Va.) and eight additional co-sponsors from both parties. Contains similar fixes.
The commission will be made up of 12 members of Congress and four non-voting rights experts, equally appointed by party and chamber. Any plan would require a strong bipartisan vote, and the deadline for the report would be after the election. Once reported, the recommendations would be considered quickly and guaranteed a vote in Parliament.
The establishment of such a commission would have been long overdue, given the rapidly deteriorating financial situation. This year’s budget deficit will be $1.5 trillion, and interest alone is expected to reach $870 billion this year, more than we spend on defense and Medicare. Over the next 10 years, the country plans to borrow more than $21 trillion, a number that could reach $26 trillion if various expiring tax and spending provisions are extended. In addition, major trust fund programs are projected to fail, including Social Security in 2033 and Medicare Part A in 2031.
Critics of the commission charge that it would create a secret way to cut Social Security and Medicare. This is nonsense and irresponsible.
The text of the legislation and public statements from the bill’s supporters during Congressional hearings make it clear that all options, including additional tax revenue, are on the committee’s table. The bill requires public hearings and awareness campaigns to involve the public in the commission’s activities. And any recommendations still need to be approved by three-quarters of the commission’s members, the entire Congress, and signed by the president, a less-than-secret process.
And not discussing changes to Social Security and Medicare would not only hinder progress on the fiscal agenda, given that these and other mandatory spending programs account for 60 percent of federal spending, but also impede the progress of these programs. endangering the well-being of those who depend on it. number one. Reaching bankruptcy would require a 23 percent cut in Social Security across the board, resulting in an estimated $17,400 reduction in income for a middle-income couple. And the longer we wait to address this problem, the bigger tax increases and benefit adjustments will be needed.
Skeptics say the commission is unlikely to succeed given the failures of other budget commissions in the past. But this ignores the history of other examples that helped pave the way for progress, such as the Greenspan commission that extended the life of Social Security in the 1980s. And even commissions that did not reach consensus, such as the Simpson-Bowles Commission, helped raise awareness of the fiscal challenges and scrutinized the policy options that would become part of the legislative debate in subsequent years. I did an important job.
A commission is no guarantee of success, but is that prospect any less likely than Congress creating its own plan well in advance of these deadlines? At a time when all movement toward this goal will soon come to a halt, I urge our group of members to begin the hard work of developing a plan so that we can be better prepared when these issues come to the table next year. Why not get one? .
It may be a long road, but you have nothing to lose. If we succeed, what we might gain is a little bit of renewed faith that our political system actually works.
Michael V. Murphy is Senior Vice President and Chief of Staff for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
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