Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) in a hypothetical presidential race, according to an Emerson College poll.
poll, published On Friday, it was found that 45% of the 1,225 registered voters surveyed supported Mr. Trump in the race against Mr. Biden, who received 44% support. Another 11% of poll participants are undecided. Trump’s lead is within a plus or minus 2.7 percentage point confidence interval.
If the field of candidates expands to include third-party candidates, Trump’s narrow lead will widen by one point. He leads with 40%, followed by Biden with 38% and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 7%. From there, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West are tied at 1 percent, leaving 13 percent undecided.
national opinion poll
Hypothetical presidential contest in 2024
Trump 45%
Biden 44%
11% undecidedTrump 46%
Harris 43%
11% undecidedTrump 46%
Newsom 36%
18% undecidedTrump 45%
Whitmer 33%
22% undecidedhttps://t.co/C3L12vMLMT pic.twitter.com/TYJNABER7B— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) February 16, 2024
Additionally, 45% of voters expect Trump to be the next president, while 42% think Biden will be the next president. Another 14% said someone else will win in November.
Mr. Emerson comes under national scrutiny of Mr. Biden’s mental capacity and age following special counsel Robert Hur’s damning report into the Biden documents scandal and the president’s disastrous press conference that addressed it. In the meantime, we investigated hypothetical matchups between Trump and other top Democrats around the country. They all trail Trump and do worse than Biden.
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White House
In a two-way race between Trump and Harris, the 45th president won 46% of the vote, compared to 43% for Harris, while 11% remained undecided.
Newsom is doing worse against Trump than Harris. Thirty-six percent of respondents said they supported California’s governor, while 46% said they would vote for Trump. The percentage of undecided voters in this scenario is 18%.
Finally, in a hypothetical showdown between Trump and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-Mich.), she trails the 45th president by a margin of 33% to 45%, with 22% of likely voters aiming to win. I understand that.
Emerson also noticed Trump’s large lead over his last remaining rival in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-South Carolina). Trump has won all four nomination contests so far, receiving support from 77% of respondents who plan to vote for the Republican nomination in their state. Haley’s approval rating is just 13%, with 10% undecided.
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Margo Martin from Storyful
A majority (56%) of those planning to vote in their state’s primary or caucus want Haley to drop out of the race. Less than one in three want her bizarre campaign to continue, and 13% have no opinion.
The poll was conducted on February 13-14, 2024.
