As Washington emboldens Putin, Ukraine pays the price

The US government has done everything it can to encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Congress’s inability to muster a vote to resume aid to Ukraine is outweighed only by the White House’s failure over the past 24 months to provide Ukraine with the arms and ammunition it needs to win. Both cannot be more than excuses and greatly serve Putin’s interests and approval.

With the war in Ukraine taking a backseat to the partisan war on Capitol Hill, Putin is playing America’s side well. The Kremlin’s disinformation campaign offsets Ukraine’s dismal track record on the battlefield. Thanks in part to the 2024 presidential election, the United States has effectively left the fight in the past two months and for the foreseeable future.

As Washington stalemates, Russian ground forces occupy Avdiivka.they are is making progress Across a 600 mile front. And the problem is not that Ukraine has not been able to kill enough Russians.According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, as of October 9, the total number of Russian casualties was 282,630; By February 20th, they 404,950. The Russians have no regard for the lives of their troops. There are a lot of young men where they come from.

Winning close battles in trenches and bombed cities depends on ammunition such as small arms, grenades, 155mm gun ammunition, cluster bombs, anti-tank missiles, and drones.

Currently, Ukraine is abandoning its positions because it lacks ammunition to repel the attack. Propping up warriors with the sharp ends of spears has proven cumbersome and dangerous.

By default, the United States is enabling Russian attacks using Korean War-era T-54 and T-55 tanks and tactics that mimic the frontal attacks of World War I. The overwhelming mass is winning. Not only is Ukraine at risk of losing a close battle, but the situation on the front will only worsen due to the continued inability to stop the flow of Russian troops and equipment into Ukraine.

Kiev needs to break this cycle to relieve pressure.News that Russian troops are present gather an army of 40,000 men 15,000 people in Mariupol, 15,000 near Zenith and Avdiivka, and even more along the Kupiansk-Kremina front are expected to be greeted by cluster bombs delivered by HIMARS. Nor should weapons be concentrated only on the Ukrainian side of the border. If they gather in Russia, they should also be included in the HIMARS welcoming committee.

All is not lost. Ukraine continues to perform well in strategic combat, striking deep into Russia’s interior and Crimea, targeting military bases and oil refineries. Successfully systematically destroyed the Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian side also removed senior Russian officials from the battle, particularly General Valery Gerasimov and Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

But that alone is not enough to win the war.Russia missiles and drones It continues to attack Ukrainian cities, towns and villages, killing civilians. Air defense weapons provided by the United States and NATO are effective, but cannot cover the entire country or hit all missiles. If the West were to allow deep strikes with weapons systems across Ukraine’s borders into Russia, a more effective method would be to destroy weapons systems that launch missiles and drones at their launch sites.

as peter dickinson “As long as Western leaders insist on limiting Ukraine’s ability to strike back against Russia, Ukrainian commanders will be forced to continue fighting with shields and not swords.”

President Putin is turning losses into wins. By almost every measure of success on the battlefield, Ukraine is winning. Combat damage evaluation, the number of Russian soldiers killed and wounded, the number of weapon systems and equipment damaged or destroyed, etc. However, they cede terrain to inferior forces by providing a seemingly endless supply of fresh bodies.

Despite the terrible losses, President Putin continues to misrepresent himself as a world leader and superpower, and the West agrees. With Russian elections around the corner, he finally secured his elusive victory in Avdiivka.

He may even have imprisoned his political opponents to send a message to his political opponents and supporters in the West. alexei navalny killed.Similarly, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s biggest political opponent Ihal LednikThe Belarusian Social Democratic Party member reportedly died in his cell on February 20, making him “the fifth political prisoner to die in prison in the past two years.”

Russia’s bullying tactics and intimidation were on full display against NATO members last week.Kremlin accuses Estonian prime minister Kaja Karas, Estonia’s Secretary of State Taimaru Peterkop and Lithuania’s Culture Minister Simonas Kailis accused them of destroying or damaging Soviet monuments commemorating Soviet soldiers. Three Baltic state officials are wanted for arrest.

Yuri Trutnev, Russia’s deputy prime minister in charge of Far Eastern and Arctic affairs, sent thinly veiled threats to Norway over its management of the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. At a meeting of the so-called “Government Committee for the Protection of the Russian Presence in Spitsbergen”, President Trutnev suggested that Russian rights in the Norwegian Islands were under pressure, and then tried to link the issue with the Ukraine war. . He said: “Today our fighters are shedding blood for the sovereignty of our country and the right of our people to speak the Russian language.”

Disturbingly, this is the same Russian tactic previously employed to justify Russian intervention in Georgia, Donbass, Crimea, and Moldova.

after that Dmitri Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation has threatened the United States and Europe with nuclear annihilation if Russia loses the war with Ukraine and is forced to return to its borders recognized in 1991. His statement came shortly after Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, announced that he had “information regarding a significant national security threat.” Russia’s anti-satellite nuclear attack capabilities.

The Kremlin is throwing everything it has at the West to create uncertainty and exploit hesitance. In the absence of U.S. funds, Ukraine has secured security from the state. England, france, germany and now Denmark. Sweden On February 20, it announced a $683 million military aid package for Ukraine. european union We finally passed a 50 billion euro package for Ukraine.

Alexei Navalny’s death could have unforeseen consequences for President Putin, which could significantly change the situation in Ukraine.President Biden is considering it again ATACMS He is scheduled to be extradited to Ukraine, and the German government is under pressure to give the green light to accept him. Taurus cruise missile.

Speed ​​is key. President Putin believes victory is at hand. The time has come for Washington to make definitively clear that Russia cannot win a war with Ukraine or the West. If Russia is defeated, the killing will cease.

Colonel (retired) Jonathan Sweet He served as a military intelligence officer for 30 years. mark toth He writes about national security and foreign policy.