Goldman Sachs strategists say more widespread use of powerful weight-loss drugs like Ozempic in the United States could boost the economy in the coming years.
The bank estimates that weight-loss drugs called GLP-1 agonists could add an additional 1% to gross domestic product over the next 10 years, equivalent to about $360 billion a year.
The idea behind Goldman’s forecast is that poor health conditions are weighing on economic growth. The main reason for this is that absenteeism increases as a result of “illness and disability, premature death and informal caregiving”, limiting the number of available workers and working hours. ”
In fact, Goldman said, if the worsening health situation did not affect labor supply, U.S. GDP could potentially increase by more than 10%.
“The main reason we think there will be significant benefits from innovations in health care is that poor health has significant economic costs. There are several ways by which poor health can depress economic activity. “If the health situation improves, economic activity could contract,” analysts led by Jan Hatzius said.
Pharmaceutical companies are scrambling to join what has become almost a two-horse race to make obesity drugs.
Novo Nordisk, the maker of Ozempic and Wigovy, and Eli Lilly, the maker of Maunjaro, have soared in popularity in the last year as A-listers like Oprah Winfrey and Tesla CEO Elon Musk drove demand for the drug out of control. did.
Depending on clinical trials, similar drugs may come to market.
Reuters
JPMorgan estimates that the market is expected to exceed $100 billion by 2030.
Goldman predicts that by 2028, between 10 million and 70 million Americans will be taking weight loss drugs.
This wide range is due to uncertainties regarding clinical trials, health insurance, and available supply.
“If GLP-1 usage ultimately increases to this extent and obesity rates decline, there is scope for significant ripple effects throughout the economy,” the analyst note said. “Academic research shows that people who are obese are less likely to work, and when they do, they are less productive.”
Economic growth would be 0.4% in a scenario with 30 million users and 1% if 60 million Americans were taking these types of drugs.
“Historically, advances in health have led to 10% fewer years of life lost to disease and disability per decade in DM economies, and if health progress advances by 10 years beyond current trends, the U.S. We estimate that healthcare standards could rise by 1%, leading to a 1% increase in GDP,” Hadzius said.
