Trump edges out Biden in three potentially game-changing areas

There are three important questions surrounding the 2024 presidential election, in light of the new referendum results, that no one has been able to answer so far. poll By Shane Cooperman Research.

Those answers will go a long way in determining who is the front-runner eight months after the election, with most polls showing a close race.

First, which is more politically harmful: President Joe Biden’s apparent cognitive decline or former President Donald Trump’s numerous legal challenges and criminal charges?

Second, can Mr. Trump win the general election if he is convicted of a federal crime?

Third, if Biden drops out of the race before the Democratic convention, would Michelle Obama, the most popular figure in the Democratic Party, be a viable candidate?

Probably the most debated question is the first one. Which problem is politically more serious: Biden’s age-related infirmity or Trump’s potential criminal activity? The answer: Biden’s.

A plurality of registered voters we surveyed (36%) indicated that Biden’s mental state is a more serious concern, while 33% said the same about Trump’s legal issues and unethical behavior. 22% say they are equally bothered by both.

Our findings were gathered just days after President Trump was fined $354 million in a New York civil fraud lawsuit, one of four major cases involving him. 1, and was collected amid aggressive White House pressure on Special Counsel Robert Hur. report As for Biden, although he legally exonerated the president, he devastatingly described the president as “an old man with a bad memory.”

As much as Trump and his defenders have denounced these charges as political; Witch Hunt, Democrats have denounced the special counsel’s report as “inappropriate” and continue to deflect uncomfortable questions about the president’s age and mental acuity. Both are futile exercises in denial and deflection, especially on Biden’s behalf.

The Biden campaign may take some comfort in the fact that a majority of voters (46%) think that Hsu’s damning depiction of Biden’s mental state was indeed inappropriate, but at the same time, a majority There is also the fact that (47%) agree with Mr. Xu’s depiction of his mental state. Mr. Biden is infirm due to age.

Despite recent efforts by Democrats to flip the script and cast doubt on President Trump’s memory, it weighs heavily on recent speeches given by President Trump. confused Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — still, enthusiasm for Biden hasn’t cooled. By 47% to 44%, Trump is considered mentally fit to be president, while by 50% to 39%, Biden is considered fit to be president. do not have mentally fit.

As for your second question: Can Mr. Trump win the general election even if he is convicted of a federal crime? Answer: Yes, unless there is something else. legal obstacles Trump may face it.

Trump leads Biden by 2 points, 47% to 45%, in SCR’s presidential race and RealClearPolitics’ poll. average Results of recent public opinion polls. But under a hypothetical scenario in which Mr. Trump is convicted in any of the federal cases he faces, our poll shows Mr. Biden trailing by 1 point in the presidential race, 45% to 44%. It turned out that just by taking the lead, statistically it was a tie.

It is important to note that voters adamantly dislike both candidates and are pessimistic about the choices at hand. But our polling shows that voters, including the most important floating voter groups, ultimately feel that Trump has done a good job in office and that his policies have improved their lives, but that Biden He has expressed the opposite opinion.

In fact, 55% of voters feel the following about President Trump’s policies. helped Individually, they include an even stronger majority of swing voters (58%). Meanwhile, 52% of voters say Biden’s policies have been effective. hurt That’s their personal opinion, including 60 percent of swing voters.Similarly, the majority of voters approve Trump did 52% of the job. disapproval Biden’s accomplishments as president (55%).This is consistent with what RealClearPolitics records average Biden’s approval rating is 41 percent to 56 percent, a 15-point difference.

There is another important difference between the two candidates. Republicans are enthusiastic about Trump, while Democrats are wary of Biden, suggesting the party’s low turnout is to blame.Most Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (54%) believe in their political party. should do not have Almost 70 percent of Republican or Republican-leaning voters who consider their party their party will nominate Biden. should Choose Trump.

This leads to the third question: If Biden does not run, would Michelle Obama, the most popular figure in the Democratic Party, be a viable candidate? Answer: Tentatively yes.

President Obama has given little indication that he intends to run, but if Biden withdraws from the race late in the game, Democrats are likely to consider Vice President Kamala Harris’ clear and well-documented problems with her. They may begin aggressive efforts to recruit soldiers. Electability.

In a hypothetical presidential election, Harris leads Trump by 11 points (50% to 39%), even though Democratic voters want Harris to be their nominee if Biden drops out. are doing. Mr. Obama is the second choice for Democratic voters, tied with Mr. Trump for president 45% to 45%.

Unlike Harris, Obama is popular and will not carry the burden of administration. A strong, well-organized campaign could push the numbers even higher, but her relative weakness against Trump highlights how much the Biden administration is weakening all Democrats. It shows.

As an indication of how negatively the current administration is viewed, when it comes to the issues that registered voters think are most important to them, they rank immigration (Trump +29), the economy (Trump +11), and inflation (Trump +11). ), Trump is more trusted than Biden. 9) And more gun violence (Trump +3). At a time of great global instability, Trump also has significant advantages in national security (Trump +23), Russia-Ukraine war (Trump +9), and Israel-Hamas war (Trump +8).

To be sure, Trump remains a problematic candidate. A majority of registered voters, 61%, believe Trump committed crimes, and 50% think he should be prosecuted for those crimes.

Despite Trump’s obvious flaws, he has advantages. This reflects the weaknesses of the current president and his administration, as well as the fact that most voters believe Trump has improved his presidential returns.

A lot can change over the next eight months, but our polling suggests that former President Donald Trump has a clear advantage in the general election.

Douglas E. Shawn and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners at the New York-based polling firm Shawn Cooperman Research. They are co-authors of the book America: Unite or Die.